My brother is also getting pre-NLDS nerves. He writes:
Want to get scared read philly.com article on 20 things about reds
Volquez - sub 2 era in september. Game 2/3 pitchers 3.8 range
Best offense in NL. Led league in runs, homers, batting average, rbi's. tied best D in NL. Least errors in reds history (72, previous best was 89).
Votto best ops in NL. Hit .393 against phils.
Oswalt is 23-3 lifetime (part of pk 30-4 comment) BUT 0-2 this year w/ 6.75 era.
Last - baker and manual were once traded for each other!!!!!
Again from my friend PK who suggests Dusty Baker's strategy in throwing Voquez in game 1:
Look at these Reds' pitchers' stats. Arroyo is clearly their best pitcher, 17-10 on the season with a 3.88 ERA.
Baker seems to be offering up a worse pitcher against Halladay in order to back load for Games 2, 3, expecting to lose Game 1 -- no matter who he starts -- but then giving himself a better chance in the other 2 games. If he can get 4-5 innings in Game 1 from Volquez, then just put in all his lefty relievers -- Wood, Rhodes, etc -- he might be able to steal game 1. If not, no big deal.
Hamels' stats at Cincy may be the reason he's the game 3 starter vs. the Reds, rather than the Manuel's desire to pitch Oswalt in a game 5.
My friend PK, who is "officially freaked out" about this upcoming series with the Reds (as am I) turns to the stats to try to soothe our nerves.
* Our Big 3 are career 30-4 against the Reds.
* Hamels is 3-0 with a 1.00-ish ERA at Cincy.
* The Reds opening starter, Volquez, went 4-3 with a 4.31 ERA this season, roughly matching his career 4.36 ERA.
* Volquez is 1 of 3 right-handed starters the Reds are throwing against us.
* Wood - the lefty who nearly threw the no-no/perfecto against us, is not starting. He's in the 'pen.
Kevin Kolb's "big miss" was not the DeSean Jackson pass, but failing to see and throw to a wide open Jeremy Maclin running a slant from the left side on the failed 2 point conversion try. That easy completion would have allowed the Eagles to tie the score with a FG at the end of the game rather than try for the Hail Mary.
It is interesting that because of the intradivision prohibition, the Phils and Rays both get to play division winners with worse records than the wildcard teams in their own divisions. The Rays get a 90 win Texas team and not the 95 win Yanks. the Phils get a 91 win Reds team and not the 91 win Braves (the Giants wound up with 92 wins). The Twins wound up with 1 less win than the Yanks but get homefield advantage against them for winning the division.
Could yesterday's game gone any better for Donovan McNabb in his return to Philadelphia?
Maybe more important than getting home field advantage in the World Series for winning the all-star game-- especially for the Phils and this year in particular -- is the fact that the NL team with the best record gets to decide when it starts the NLDS. The one NLDS series has an extra off day, meaning that the Phils could throw pitch their top 3 aces on normal rest for the entire 5 games.
And for the NLCS and World Series, they could pitch all three twice (if necessary) on normal rest with presumably Blanton getting the other two (game 4) starts.
I have 2 theories about the Mike Vick replacing Kevin Kolb as the starter, one of which has already been publicly floated in lots of places. 1) Reid's genuinely concerned about Kolb long-term, especially with the current state of the O-line, and didn't want to put him at risk long term both in terms of physically and psychologically coming back after Vick's big 6 quarters of football. This would fit his MO of making bizarre statements and decisions in an attempt to protect his players - in this case, the O-line. The problem with this theory is that Reid could have achieved the same ultimate goal by saying that while Kolb's concussion test was normal, out of an abundance of caution they are going to keep him out till his head is completely cleared. This would also play well given the controversy surrounding their game day handling of Bradley and Kolb in the Packers game. 2) My personal theory (that I am still working out) is that Reid viewed this season as the Kolb transition season with relatively low expectations on both O and D and the long-term plan was for Kolb to get the experience necessary for a really great season next year. Of course, after 4 years you would think Kolb could easily take the reins but there is something to be said for actual game experience. Under my theory, it's not really Kolb or Vick's play so much that influenced Reid's decision (though Vick helped his cause) but the realization that the NFC is WIDE OPEN this year now that Dallas is 0-2, the Vikings are 0-2, the Giants are middling, the NFC west is mediocre and the Eagles held their own against the best team in the conference (the Packers). So Reid has now switched gears and instead of expecting to take his and Kolb's lumps against Dallas, New Orleans, et. al, he's going to play Vick and actually try to make the playoffs. Forget about the nonsense about needing to give Vick a contract extension. Has no one realized that the Eagles already shipped a better QB than Vick out of town to make way for Kolb. You don't think they'll let #7 test the free agent market next year and say sayonora to him after the season and return to the Kevin Kolb experiment? Please. If Vick plays well and the team wins games and maybe even makes the playoffs, it's a win. if Vick doesn't play well and the team loses games, then I would fully expect Kolb to be back as starter before the end of the year. Heck, even if Vick plays well but the team still loses Kolb would likely be back as starter as they lay the groundwork for next season (unless the O-line doesn't gel and is truly horrendous in which case they might stay with Vick to keep Kolb from getting killed).
My brother is as bewildered as anybody about the Kolb-Vick saga and Andy Reid's role in it:
Possible issue w/ Kolb – that's a guess. Something the team knows – i.e. drugs, steroids, beat his wife, something??? Nothing else makes sense.
Why not just say – going with the hot hand and we want to make sure Kevin is fine before putting him out there. We have 2 great qb's and we're lucky and we have confidence in both and Mike is going to play this week. Sure you get the looking over your shoulder possibility and the media would feed off that, but it HAS TO BE BETTER THAN WHAT HE SAID.!!!!!!
NOW, Reid looks like a liar. This is his most obvious one, but Reid says he's my guy and we're happy with our receivers all the time. It's BS and this is another example. He's lying and people now know that. Loses credibility and that's not good.
My friend PK's take on the stunning QB turn of events:
The most annoying thing about Andy over the years was also one of the things that made him a great coach: his stubborn loyalty, his sense of never hitting the panic button.
It was maddening at times -- why did you call 62 pass plays and 13 runs in a game you never trailed by more than 4 pts, coach? I did what was best for the team, blah, blah, blah.
As maddening as it was, it sent a sense of calm amid the storm. That he knew what was going on, that he had the confidence in the system and the team, and that the players fed off that.
These moves this week are only the 2nd time in his 11-plus-year tenure when it appears he hit the panic button. The 1st, at halftime in Baltimore in '08, when he yanked Donovan from a 12-7 game, which we ended up losing 36-7. The panic button was immediately placed back inside its box as Donovan was quickly named the starter and the team went on a great run in which No 5 probably played the best football of his life, coming up just short of beating Ariz to go to the Super Bowl.
This, this week, this is soooooo out of character. No clue what to make of it.
My friend who is a Giants' fan asks:
DId the Colts fan have a legal obligation to give the helmet back to the Giants, or the NFL or anyone? Do you waive your right to keep objects that come into the stands at a football game as part of yoru ticket purchase?
not sure if its just baseball culture that lets you keep objects that fly into the stands that isn't there in football....
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Stunning news that Andy Reid has reversed course and named Mike Vick the Eagles' starting QB.
Well, opening day could not have gone worse for Andy Reid and Kevin Kolb.
As an Eagles' season ticket holder, i found this article about declining attendance at NFL games rather interesting. Notwithstanding the lousy economy that has had a measurable impact on attendance, this is going to be an ongoing problem/trend for the NFL.
Two things of particular note:
Tickets are expensive. As the article notes, the average price is $75, making a season ticket package worth $750...for one ticket.
While some teams, the article references New Orleans and Tampa as two teams that whose cheapest tickets are $35, it doesn't mention that these are obviously the worst tickets in the stadium and fans would be better off watching the game on TV than in person from the nose bleed section. It also doesn't account for all of the ancillary costs that accompany the $35 ticket....$25 parking, $8 beers, $6 hot dogs, etc. Economically, staying at home is a much better deal and that doesn't even count the time involved in traveling to and from the stadium which is at least a 5-6 hour time commitment (not counting tailgating) as compared to the 3 hours from start to finish of watching at home.
And lets face it. The NFL has a huge fan problem in the stadiums. The consensus among my season ticket holding friends is that 14 is the minimum age at which we would bring our children to a game. Because of the language, drunkeness, machismo, and generally boorish fan behavior - all of which is tolerated if not tacitly supported by the teams (actions that i have engaged in myself). It is definitely not a family friendly environment. Certainly not of the order of the other major professional sports, especially baseball. I had the occasion of attending the Eagles-Giants football game and Yankees-Phillies world series game last year and the experiences could not have been more different. Even though it was a world series game, Citizens Bank Park felt more welcoming, more friendly, and more family oriented than the Linc and the rowdiness and aggressiveness that permeated the crowd.
The larger issue is that the NFL blackout rules are nonsensical. The less fans that go to a game, the less (i.e. NO) fans are able to watch the games on TV. The less games on TV, the less fans are likely to go to games. The NFL relies on approximately 70,000 fans to subsidize the ability of several hundred thousand fans to watch the game on TV. Admittedly, some of those 70,000 change each week, but a core group of 30-40,000 season ticket holders subsidize several magnitudes larger tv viewers. The bottomline is that it is an unsustainable business model.
NFL execs are quick to note that the league is the only one that still offers its games on free TV. That will soon come to an end. The not too distant future is a model in which TV viewers subscribe to watch their home team's games. The only question is how much such a product will cost. My guess it will still be cheaper to buy the games on TV than actually attend in person. The TV experience will still be better and a better deal, though not having a packed stadium in the background will take some getting used to. From the comfort of my couch, i'm sure i'll adjust.
More evidence that brain trauma can happen to any football player - not just the pros - and not just to older players but in this tragically sad case, to 21 year-olds who played since they were 9.
The money quote from the article.
"It's pretty hard to make a jump with one case," said Dr. James Moriarity, the University of Notre Dame's head physician, who oversees the athletic department's medical care. "But if it's true that that happened, it would kill the sport," he said, referring to an amateur player getting C.T.E. "As a parent, it's going to be hard to justify kids going out and doing that."
Hamels' 25 inning scoreless streak ends but still... 3-0 and 1.77 ERA (or is it 0.77?) in last 5 five starts.
Maybe it's just me and the lack of excitement over the first Eagles team in more than a decade that isn't a favorite to grab one of the top playoff seeds, but I can't help but think that this season- particularly the way this season has started - does not bode well for the NFL.
Interesting game tomorrow vs. the Packers.
Oh yes, two other disclaimers. while i like our chances vs. the Niners and Bears, beware west coast travel and Chicago after Halloween.
5-11 is a possibility, when you think about. Muff 1 of those early season games that should be a win - like Jax - and it could all spin the wrong way.
I don't think it's fair to say we split against Dallas, they beat us 3 times last year, twice very badly. As for the Skins, they had a better defense than ours the past 2 seasons or so. It might not show up statistically, we might be slightly better than them, but that's with our offense being so good. Their offense sucked open ass, had tons of 3 and outs, and yet their D kept fighting.
With a good offense, Skins D will be a Top 5 defense this year.
My projection:
Here's my brother's take on the season:
I found some interesting stuff – The Giants and Eagles have murderous schedule at end. If Andy goes .500 over last 8 weeks we'll win division. I have eagles starting something like 6-1.
The opener as the only loser. I've said this before – the opener is HUGE this year. Sets the tone. Very good chance of Donovan coming to town with us undefeated (Jags/Lions after the Pack).
We end with cowboys, Giants end at Washington. If I'm close on my predictions than the last week should be awesome. I had Cowboys/Skins winning those games – so going into those I'd be at 9-6 eagles, 9-6 giants, 9-6 cowboys, 7-8 redskins. Off by a game before then and we're all around 8-7.
Eagles middle schedule is interesting with the Niners/Falcons/Bears as big swing games – are those teams really going to better –on paper they are – actually significantly better. I have us sweeping them. Then getting it handed to us down the stretch (colts/Vikings/at giants/at redskins cowboys twice).
If we lose the close games – more likely with a new, first-time starting QB – then we're looking at 7-9, maybe even 6-10 considering the schedule. If the D returns to prominence we could get to 10-6. With no easy wins for anyone in the East that could take the division.
Cowboys 10-6
Eagles 9-7 - I put them second as I think they have the better chance at 9-7 (more confidence with them being 9-7 then Giants)
Giants 9-7
Redskins 8-8
My brother and friend Pk have usually been pretty accurate in predicting the Eagles' final regular season record. Of course, it hasn't often unfolded the way we envisioned, but the final numbers have been remarkably close to our preseason calls.
This year is a little different. First, the Eagles aren't the automatic playoff team they have been for the past ten years - or more accurately, since Donovan McNabb's been the starter. There's been a lot changes besides trading the franchise QB. Brian Westbrook's departure has garnered surprisingly little attention. The defense, which collapsed in the last two Dallas games - has been overhauled with several new players and some familiar faces returning (Bradley).
Anyway, the next couple of entries are our predictions for the Eagles season. There surprisingly consistent in their outlook, which is essentially something between a 7-9 to 9-7 season. Whether that will be good enough for a wild card spot remains to be seen.
I've got the Eagles winning between 6 and 8 games. And I'm getting them out to a 3-1 start. The keys to the season may well be Games 5, 6 and 7: on the road in SF and Atl at home and Titans on the road. I've got them losing all 3, as we'll be on the road out west (we always lose those games, think Raiders!) and Ryan is a good-to-great QB, and our D now gets killed by those types of QBs.
Then we lose 2 in a row, at home against Colts and on road in DC. I'm giving us a split against NYG and losing both to Dallas. I've got us losing 4 straight at the end of the season, to finish 6-10.
But, we could go 7-9 if we beat SF or Atl or Titans, or 8-8 if we take 2 of the 3.
Very hard to see us winning 9 games this season, unless our defense is dramatically improved from last year's ridiculously average group.
Those final 8 games, there's not a single layup in the mix. Even the Texans (good-to-great QB) at home is not a lock.
We could easily go 2-6 in the 2nd half of the season.
My friend PK looks at the Phils' few weeks to the finish line:
2 things of note:
* we play 15 of our remaining 21 on the road. If we win at our current win %'s at home and road, we finish with almost 93 wins. Atl plays 13 of remaining 22 at home, and if they win out based on current win %'s at home/road, they win just about 93 games. Damn.
* Charlie is using the Thursday off day to set the pitching lineups perfectly!!! There's 9 games between now and the 9/21 start of the Braves series. Halladay is starting this Fri nigh, and Oswaltshould/could pitch Saturday (he'll have 4 rest days since his Monnight pitching). Then next 2 are Blanton-Kendrick/rookie, then Cole pitches, followed by the Roys games 6 and 7 of this 9-game stretch.Then Blanton-Kendrick/rookie pitch games 8 and 9. Then Hamels starts game 1 of Braves series at home, followed by the Roys in games 2, 3.
Perhaps the KEY stat as far as the Phils' playoff drive is concerned.
This about sums up Hamels' lack of offensive support. Per Geib at the Inqy:
"The five runs represented more than the Phillies had scored in Hamels' previous four starts combined (four runs). Hamels won for the first time since July 11 despite a 2.47 ERA since the all-star break."
Just another inexplicable reason as to why the NFC west teams - the Cardinals and especially the 49ers - didn't more aggressively pursue Donovan McNabb in the offseason. Both could be super bowl contenders with a halfway competent QB to say nothing of a top 10 talent like McNabb.
Nobody hates like Philly fans but usually the media (or at least the print media, i can't speak for the crazies on WIP) have been a little more moderated. But now comes Ashley Fox's bizarre column in which she feels compelled to trash Shawn Andrews and the Giants' signing of him.
Bob Ford attacks Donovan McNabb’s GQ interview in which McNabb blames the coaching staff for the lack of a no huddle offense at the end of the super bowl and complains that the team didn’t support him.
Oddly, Ford lays the lack of offensive urgency at McNabb’s feet and completely disregards the coaching staff’s culpability. It is famously, after all, head coach Andy Reid who calls the offensive plays. And presumably it is Reid who orders a no huddle offense. So I’m not sure what Wolf is suggesting, other than McNabb should have committed insubordination (for which he would now take him to task for as well) and gone no huddle regardless of Reid’s playcalling.
Ford also says that since the team paid McNabb $112 million that it supported him. No, actually. That is paying him. For services rendered. Supporting him would have been to defend him from the raft of criticism, much of racially motivated, that permeated his career in Philadelphia and even leaked into news stories. Supporting him would have meant going out and getting more than headcase Terrell Owens as his lone WR playmaker in his eleven seasons with the team.
My friend PK was in Vegas and reports back on the Eagles and Redskins odds to win the division and the NFC.
A little late, but in honor of Halladay's shutdown performance on Friday (I heard on the radio that Halladay has allowed 1 run or fewer in 14 of his 26 starts this year) , my friend PK wanted to give him the honor of best Phillies pitching since Lefty's historical '72. Alas, Carlton had the best season of any Phils pitcher since his monster '72 year... in 1980.
PK again digs up the numbers.
in 1980 and at 35, Carlton went 24-9, with 304 innings - most ever in the last 30 MLB seasons - and a 2.34 ERA, with 13 CGs and 3 shutouts. At 16-8, with possibly 8 starts to go, Halladay can rival that season.
What could explain Raul's resurgence? A 38 year-old getting stronger as the season progresses, hmmnn something could be fishy. Raul is a late bloomer but my friend PK wonders if there isn't some other explanation and wonders what the steroid testing protocol in MLB is:
If you get tested and your clean, do you know that you're free and clear for the rest of the season?
Because Ibanez is sooooo hot right now, I don't know what to make of it. Almost feels as if he got his test, finally, and he passed, so now he's back on his PED cycle and actually hitting homers.
Three months ago, even balls he hit hard only 1 hopped to the fence.
Now they're going over the fence. Here's MLB.com's breakdown of his
stats:
Nearly no one in baseball has been a hotter hitter over the past two-plus weeks than Ibanez, who hit a three-run homer in the third inning to give the Phillies a three-run lead. Ibanez is hitting .407 (24-for-59) with four doubles, four home runs, 16 RBIs, 12 walks, a .500 on-base percentage and a .678 slugging percentage during his
career-high 16-game hitting streak.
Ibanez was hitting .248 with a .331 on-base percentage and a .394 slugging percentage on July 21, and has since raised those marks to .274, .359 and .439, respectively.
My friend PK digs through some numbers on Cole Hamels
Some relevant Hamels stats:
• Hamels is 1-2 with a 1.81 ERA in his last seven starts. He has
allowed one or fewer runs in five of those starts.
• He is 5-7 with a 2.85 ERA in 19 starts since April.
• Hamels has lost consecutive starts by a 1-0 score.
• Hamels ranked 92nd out of 104 qualifying pitchers in baseball this season in run support before Friday night. He had averaged just 3.51 runs of support per nine innings.
In the wake of the Phils' series win vs.the Mets, I thought I'd pass along a good joke my brother recently told me.
How many Mets does it take to do laundry?
Only one, but it takes the entire team to fold.
Sent on the Sprint® Now Network from my BlackBerry®
A bizarre and humiliating story for the NHL. Somehow, the Capitals' team name was engraved on the Eastern Conference trophy, the Prince of Wales award. Worse, the NHL didn't catch it until a fan in Chicago noticed it during a fan event. Even worse, even after it was brought to their attention, the NHL denied the problem and called the fan's claim a "hoax." Turns out it was the NHL that was perpetrating a hoax by touting the Caps as the Eastern Conference champs on its second most important and recognizable trophy.
Sister Denise Mosier would be alive today if this country would enforce it's immigration laws and strengthen its borders. She would also be alive if law enforcement took the wrongdoing by illegal immigrants once in this country more seriously.
Amidst all the joy of obtaining another starting ace in Roy Oswalt (notwithstanding Friday's disappointing loss) and the ongoing worry concerning Brad Lidge, this NY TImes article notes that the biggest difference between the Phillies and the division leading Braves so far this season has been the bullpen. The key point:
The Braves entered this weekend's series at Cincinnati with a 3.24 bullpen earned run average, the fourth best in the majors. The Phillies ranked 17th at 4.04. A large part of the Braves' success has been the left-handerJonny Venters, who also shows how hard it can be to predict which pitchers will thrive in relief.
To Brad Lidge for the first 1-2-3 save opportunity inning since June 4!
The key must be to stake Lidge to something more than a 1 run lead, or face a less than dangerous lineup like the washington nationals.
Here's a news bulletin we sure got used to when he was an Eagle:
ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- Denver Broncos running backs Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter have both been injured on the Broncos' first day of training camp.
I'm watching game with my mom. When they showed Lidge on mound to start bottom of 9th, she says "oh geez, he's a nightmare. Why do they still play him? They should have traded him. Don't they have anyone better to put out there?"
This patter went on as the inning imploded.
Clearly if my mom gets, its bad.
Paul Hagen has a good column about the dilemma the Phils face in moving Lidge out of the closer's role. Not good options here. Madson has proven he doesn't have the mentality to be the full time closer. And would/could Lidge be the 8th inning set up man?
Phils' skipper Charlie Manuel continues his mantra that Brad Lidge is his closer and he has confidence in him. What else is he going to say?
But what of Lidge's teammates. My friend, PK, was at Saturday night's disastrous blown save loss. Here's what he says:
I was here tonight for the disaster. I knew it was over as soon as the leadoff guy got on base.
Most importantly, I watched the team's reaction. They gave up on Lidge. They didn't act surprised. Just slowly walked off the field
dejected. Charlie has to make it stop. The team doesn't believe in him. It's obvious. If he won't pull the plug, Ruben has to cut Lidgeand eat the salary.It's really hard to explain in email, but his teammates have given up on Lidge. It's entirely visible in person.
I'd estimate it took Werth 5 mins to walk from deep CF to get to the dugout. You could almost sense his conversation with himself: I've not been traded, I've got 2 months left with this team and I really wanna win a Series again, yet this douche bag is blowing games. JRoll had a similar stroll from SS, as did Raul. It's very visible that the players don't want to play behind Lidge anymore. Which is why Charlie's loyalty routine is so silly. He has to be loyal to the guys who are producing like Werth, JRoll, Howard. Not Brad.
The Wachovia Center, nee the First Union Center (the aptly named FU Center), nee the Core States Center will now be the Wells Fargo Center. So not only can fans follow their favorite pro basketball and football teams at this arena, but they learn history lesson of consolidation in the American financial sector.
My brother makes the following observation about Lidge's latest save adventure:
I honestly thought charlie should have gone to lefty specialist - I think they still had romero- on sunday against giambi with 2 on 2 out. Lidge walked him and then almost walked stewart (who is also a lefty so if rockies pinch hit for giambi they could have walked righty ph and had jc face stewart. It worked out, but you have to think about a quicker hook at this point.
Sunday - some horrible hitting w risp - bases loaded 1 out and 1st and 3rd no out got us nothing and almost cost us game. In 6th (5th?)ibanez hit leadoff double and I first thought - my immediate thought was -pinch run. Ibanez can't score on single and with no out he may get to 3rd with one out. We need someone faster down a run. Sure enough - ibanez doesn't score on rollins single and 2/3/4 can't bring him home from 3rd.
It's getting a little fregosiesque circa 1993.
A friend writes:
So we're now 53-46, 4.5 games back of the Braves and right in the mix for the wild card.
It's better than I actually expected, thanks to the two 4-game sweeps of the Reds before the break and the Rox this weekend.
We're now entering a key 9-game stretch of the season. We have 9 games against the D'backs (37-62), the Nats (42-57) and the Marlins (49-49).
We need to take 6 of those 9 games, minimum. Preferably 7-2, to get to 60-48 with 44 games left.
That would probably put us right in the mix with the Braves, who are a terrible road team, btw.
On to Lidge.
Why has there been no discussion of what to do about the closer role in the home stretch of the season? If we trade for Oswalt and then unload Werth to get prospects in a side deal, I hope we pick up some sorta relief pitcher for Werth.
He simply cannot pitch from the stretch, it's that simple. Today, he got the 'save' after giving up 2 runs on 3 hits and 2 BB.
It's not about his "injuries". It wasn't last year, it's not this year.
Jayson Stark reports that the Phillies are interested in acquiring Roy Oswalt and are shopping Jayson Werth. During the Sunday night pre-game show, ESPN radio analysts also said the Phillies were "quietly shopping" Werth.
Incredibly, it is (was) Simon Gagne who was the common denominator for the Philadelphia Flyers over the past decade. Not Lindros, not LeClair, not Primeau, nor Forsberg though - incredibly - Gagne played with them all.
I heard during the espn radio pregame show last night. Rollins and Utley have only played 16 games together all season. They're 12-4 in those games.
I just re-watched the cheesy Freddie Prinze, Jr/Jessica Biel flick, "Summer Catch," being re-run on cable. The closing credits begin with a shot of a scoreboard with an old Phillies lineup which made me chuckle. Note the movie was made in 2001.
From a Mets fan friend attending yesterday's Braves-Mets game:
Jason bay is not starting on jason bay bobblehead day.
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One has to wonder how tone deaf the Obama administration is to send Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner out to tout the success of the TARP program, the implicit message being that they helped save the banks, they're doing great, but it didn't translate to helping regular people save their jobs or homes.
And as Yves Smith has pointed out, even Geithner's statements misrepresent TARP's "success."
Change we can believe in.
My friend PK analyzed Doc Halladay's stats and came up with this intriguing finding:
He gives up a ton - a ton - of hits. It's admirable how few walks he yields, but the price he pays for that precision -- his ball is always around the plate -- is that he gives up a ton of hits. In 115 innings, he's given up 108 hits so far this year.
To put that in perspective, in 100 innings, Josh Johnson has given up just 72 hits. He has 26 BBs, 10 more than Halladay, but his ERA is 1.80 and Doc's is 2.43. The reason? He gives up so many fewer hits. He's effectively wild. Bases on balls are the evil bogeyman of baseball, but for a great pitcher, walking a couple guys per 9 innings is not that big of a deal.
Jimenez has given up just 65 hits in 101 innings. In 109 innings, Adam Wainwright has given up 80 hits; Matt Cain, in 100 innings, just 72 hits. They all have better ERAs than Halladay.
This year's hit parade for Halladay is historically on average. In '09, over 239 innings, he gave up 234 hits. It's just the way he pitches.
This is not a complaint of mine, he's a really wonderful pitcher. It's just that I now realize, he's not a historically significant pitcher. He's not Pedro/Maddux/Big Unit, he's not a Seaver, he's not a Palmer.
He's never had an ERA below 2.50. (There was 1 season where he had a 2.40-ish ERA, but only in 19 starts.)
He is just always so around the plate, that as batters you know where the ball is gonna be and you go up there hacking. And since the ball is around the plate, in good spots, when you put wood on the ball, there's a good chance you're gonna hit it solidly. I really have no idea how he ever threw a perfect game.
My journalist friend thinks something is rotten in the locker room (a la Eric Lindros) and he's proven to have a nose for news. We'll see.
Seriously, this just sucks. For a while the hitting sucked, now the pitching just sucks, aside from whenever Halladay pitches. The team is in a free fall.
I now believe that something happened in the locker room. That someone is/was sleeping with someone else's wife or girlfriend. This is entirely inexplicable, this free fall.
Oh, another thing. Our bench sucks. Gregg Dobbs is a disaster. He can't hit for shit anymore, he clearly must've been on steroids back in '07-'08, or he was a bat corker. Castro was a nice addition until he also got hurt.
All in all, this is f*%!ing ridiculous.
This organization is in full fledged melt down right now. There's something much, much deeper going on. I don't know if it's Howard's big contract that has ruined the locker room or the caught-cheating in the bullpen in Colorado.
Something bigger, deeper has infected this locker room.
Here's a fun thing to examine:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2010_05_21_bosmlb_phimlb_1&mode=wrap
Check the box score of that game, the Fri night game against the Red Sox, May 21. It's the last game Rollins was in the lineup. Look at those averages; 6 of the 8 starters were over .300 in BA.
Now, flash forward 3 weeks, after yesterday afternoon's Red Sox game, and there's not a single guy who's hitting over .300 anymore. (Unless you count backup catcher Schneider.)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2010_06_12_phimlb_bosmlb_1&mode=wrap
At this point, Werth and Utley had dropped more than 50 pts each. Dobbs -- who flat out sucks and probably should just be cut at some point, he's useless at the plate and in the field -- he started for Polanco, who along with Howard is the only guy who's average hasn't completely plummeted. (Howard is down from .310 to .286, a significant drop, but compared to Werth and Utley, that's nothing.)
So, yes, a big chunk of this is driven by Rollins and his absence. It's infuriating. There's absolutely no indication of when the hell he's ever coming back. Is this a steroid/PED thing? Is that what's causing the injury? He's off the 'roids so now he's getting hurt?
[It's not binocular-gate that's the cause of the slump]. It took another 5-10 days after they got busted with the binoculars, because they went to Milwaukee and Pittsburgh and put up some big numbers, and beat the BoSox on a Fri night with JRoll hitting lead off for the 1st time since game 6 of the season.
Then the bottom fell out.
It really all appears to be related to Rollins being hurt. Because Utley has been a godddam disaster since Rollins went down for the 2nd time. Which coincided with Polanco getting hurt, which means Howard has not been hitting with people on base in front of him. A complete collapse.
From a Phils-fan baseball blog, a post about how bad the bench is.
These stats are effective as of May 31, but have changed little since.
Gload brought a .242/.242/.424 line into Sunday's game; he's been far and away the best hitter off the Phillies bench. Dobbs entered today's game with a .130/.200/.260 line (and was pinch-hit for by Castro, which might rank among the worst insults someone can deliver via lineup decision). Ben Francisco, who's seen time in place of Raul Ibanez, was hitting .194/.256/.250 on the season before getting a pinch-double today. Backup catcher Brian Schneider is batting .174/.296/.174; his terrible batting has made it more difficult for Manuel to give Ruiz rest as he battles through a variety of minor injuries.The reserves have failed both when starting games and coming in to hit. Collectively, Phillies pinch-hitters in 2010 came into Sunday's game batting .119—worst by far in the league, and actually worse than Phillies pitchers, who collectively hit .125 through their first 29 games. (The pinch-hitters are tied with the Padres for the NL's worst OPS, at .427.) Nor is the botched bench a one-year problem: last season, Phils pinch-hitters batted .186 (second worst in the league) with an OPS of .630 that was 12th in the NL.
And the problem is, sports writers protect sports stars, in general, so I'm not sure we'll ever know what ended this great team's play.
Question: why is there no discussion of when Rollins is returning? Why isn't it a full-blown crisis? Why is this not openly speculated upon?
The man went on 15-day DL on May 22, thru June 6, and now almost 10 days later nothing is happening. No one is asking Qs, no one seems concerned. Something is f@#$ing wrong. Something is weird.
The sports "journalism" is falling down on the job here. Something happened.
I'm convinced of it.
So goes C Mike Richards, so go the Flyers. Clearly he was worn down and out of gas at the end, just like his teammates.
Roenick crying - based on memory of letting Blackhawk kids down in 92 - was crazy. Especially after he admitted earlier that he had never touched, nor would ever touch, the Stanley Cup till he won it.
I was talking to a neighbor of mine (philly guy) about the Flyers run and the thing about it is - how hard it is to get to the Cup finals much less win it. Such a grind. The best team rarely wins (neither #1 seed made it to the finals and the Caps were knocked out in the first round). so when you get that far, it is so disappointing not to take that last step.As great as this series was for hockey, it may be why the NHL will never become a top echelon sport. too many variables and upsets. the favored team is really not that much of a favorite, especially when facing a journeyman but incredibly hot goalie. Similarly, dynasties are very rare and so the superstar players only occasionally get to play in the premier games. Still, only certain sports and situations can make me feel like i did when the Flyers tied it up late in the 3rd.
What a series. The better team won, but what a ride it was.
A friend visiting Las Vegas writes:
Stopped in a sports book.
The Eagles are 26-1 to win the Super Bowl. When's the last time our odds were that bad?
Dallas - a team we finished with the same # of wins as - is 8-1 to win Super Bowl.
NYG and the Bears are 22-1, while GB is 11-1. The frickin' 49ers are 25-1 to win the Super Bowl!!!!
The Skins are 40-1. About what I'd expect for a team that went 4-12 and had a nice offseason.
The gambling world has spoken: Kolb is expected to suck.
Meanwhile, holy crap, Strasburg is great.
Thoughts on game 5 and musings for game 6:
A pity Jonathan Toews finally showed up to the Cup finals. Kane is also going a little more than he was earlier in the series.
It was no surprise the blackhawks played with such energy and desperation, they were facing an elimination road game if they lost.
In each of the games at the United Center, the Flyers have mounted comebacks only to be thwarted by soft goals – both by Leighton and Boucher.
How is it that the high stick on Briere that drew blood merited barely a mention by the announcers and not a penalty – especially after Emrick and Olzyck had already mentioned that linesmen can intervene on penalties if there is blood? Nobody saw the high stick?!
Is Jeff Carter going to step up or his still obviously injured foot going to prevent that?
Leighton should start game 6. He's so great at home. I would then start Boucher in game 7 in Chicago.
Similarly, I would scratch Carcillo for game 6 but play him in game 7 to help counter the Blackhawks' strong starts.
Unprompted by me, my kids have started calling them the "Blackstinks."
The Flyers' inability to clear the puck out of their defensive zone will likely be their undoing.
For all the gnashing of teeth by fans after game 5, this series is exactly where it should be. A game 5 upset would have been a terrific opportunity to gain control of the series but was probably too much to ask.
More to the point, if the Flyers win game 6 this series is about all Philly fans could hope for – a game 7 winner take all. Like Pittsburgh last year, I'll take my chances on anything happening in that one.
Hopefully, the extra day of rest will help Richards the most, who is clearly worn down.
For as dominant as Pronger has been on Chicago's top line, it's hard to believe it took Quennvile till the 3rd period of game 4 to split up the Kane and Toews.
Don't Stop Believing!
The college Hall of Fame guard that helped Purdue win a national championship but is better known as the greatest coach of all time:
Mike Richards is the Man.
All the pressure has now shifted to Chicago, which now faces a must-win game 5 or face an elimination game on the road - and the Flyers playing for the Stanley Cup in game 6.
Thoughts and observations from game 2:
Dan Carcillo is a hockey player. While NBC focused on his energy and physicality - and took unfair criticism of him cause the blackhawks outhit and outshot the Flyers in the 1st period, it wasn't Carcillo's fault.
Jonathan Toews has been MIA this series so far (not that i'm complaining).
The Flyers dominated the 3rd period.
Shots from the slot were a huge problem in game 1, so it was funny to see early in the first period the blackhawks with the puck beyind Leighton's net and both Flyers forwards turn to cover the slot (no one was there).
Nice to see Milbury call out the refs on the bogus cross-checking penalty. The Flyers were hurt by not having a penalty in the first game as the refs were looking for any excuse to call one on them in game 2 and even the calls.
Sure they're down 2-0 and everytime the Blackhawks have the puck in their zone I hold my breath, but it still feels like the Flyers are more than holding their own and can win this thing.
