Thursday, November 25, 2010

Doing NBC's job

Al Michaels brieflly and vaguely referenced Eli Manning fumbling in similar fashion last year (on a head first dive). It was nearly one year ago. And it was against the Eagles and the game was broadcast on NBC. Inexplicably, NBC never did cue up the replay from last year and show it. Why is a great mystery. I thought these kind of things were digitally preserved and on the fingertips of the vaunted producers.


In any case, my friend PK did NBC's job for them by finding the relevant replay clip on-line.

Watched this again -- yes, it was a Sun night game. You can see the NBC logo in the video. Which is both odd, since they barely mentioned the similar fumble Sunday night despite having called the game themselves. And because they didn't air the 2 fumbles sequentially so we could see the stupid fumbles.

At the 3-min mark, you'll find Eli's flop from last year that led to the most ridiculous fumble ever -- until last night. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TQr-32UYoA  
As my brother notes: Crazy similarities in both games.  Giants take lead after eagles looked great in 1st half.  Giants lead was 1 (like last night) and then eagles score on long play.  Avant 2 point conversion – same play just went the other way with lefty Vick playing.  Turnover by G-men in last 10 seconds.  Crazy.

Giants-Eagles

weird, weird game. in short, a typical Giants-Eagles game. 

atrocious officiating in the 1st half. how many holds did they show of the Giants' line? and then the make up (non) call on the Eagles receiver contact near the goal line. Samuels' roughing the receiver call (helmet to helmet). 

Bradshaw's bizarre non-fumble instant replay reversal (was the forearm really down before the wrist?). 

Eli's early INTs that lead to FGs that should have been TDs. 

Avant's drop in the endzone. 

The blocked FG at the end of the half that should have been a Giants TD but wasn't thanks to David Akers(?) and Sav Rocca (?!). 

Thanks to th Ellis Hobbs injury and the Eagles last possession of the first half combined with their lengthy possession to start the 2nd half meant that Eli and the Giants offense didn't touch the ball in like an actual hour of real time. 

The Asante INT and fumble. Ugh. 

Herremans being called for a clip and chop block in the same game. 

completely dominating for 2 1/2 quarters and all the sudden seeing a 16-3 lead turn into a 17-16 deficit. 

3rd and 1 shotgun - only Andy Reid. Followed by 4th and 1 toss for the TD. McCoy was totally shut out but for 2 plays all game. 

Coughlin's questionable call to go for it on 4th and 6 with 3:13 to go and all his TOs from his own 44.. 

Which looked good till Eli fumbled on the slide. So glad Michaels referenced last year as i was initially  thinking it looked familiar but couldn't recall which Manning did and it and whether the Eagles were involved. How NBC did not have a replay of last year's play is inexplicable. 
  
there's probably more i missed. 

weird, weird game. 

Friday, November 19, 2010

An I-95 Rivalry Renewed

My friend PK writes:


What else is better in late November?

Two football teams squaring off against one another with a long history of battling for regional supremacy. First place on the line. A sellout crowd, as always, on hand. An explosive offense for the home team propelled by a QB who, just 3 years ago, was left for dead, athletically speaking.

It doesn't get any better than this.

Go Fightin' Blue Hens. 

Villanova at Delaware, noon tomorrow, at Tubby Raymond Field.

Pat Devlin, the pride of Downingtown, tries to finish the season off for the No. 1 ranked Hens, capping off an amazing recovery from his days on Joe Pa's bench. (He's now ranked among the top 5 QBs in next year's draft.)

'Nova, always snobbishly looking down upon its state-school rival just down the highway, desperately needs a win to have any chance to get to the playoffs.

Game on. Check your local Comcast sports listings.

PS -- Oh, did you think I was talking about the Eagles-Giants? Sorry.

Leading by Example

The Eagles really are leading by example in their Go Green initiative.

Sunday, November 07, 2010

Line

What is with the Colts-Eagles line?


Eagles by 3?!

Are you kidding me?

And an over/under of 46? Vegas has the Colts scoring 22 1/2 points. Does anyone think Manning will score any less than 24 points, minimum? The Eagles will have to score 27 points or more to win.

Incredibly, late money is still coming in on the Eagles as the Colts getting 3 is now an even money bet.

Has Vegas not seen the last couple of Colts-Eagles games. If Manning can figure out Jim Johnson's defense, he sure as hell can solve Sean McDermott.

The only positive is that the Eagles run defense is very strong. But a strategy of sitting back and defending the pass/Manning is a dangerous tact.

Friday, November 05, 2010

Why Democrats Got Destroyed

Eliot Spitzer astutely lays out the reasons for the Democratic disaster on Tuesday in Slate.


The key point:

2) The Wall Street bailout. President Obama lost his capacity to harness the support of the disaffected middle when he enhanced the bailout of Wall Street without getting anything meaningful in return. That was the emotional Rubicon for this administration. Had the bailout been accompanied by fundamental reform, genuine contrition, and actual pounds of flesh, the public might have accepted it. But when the banks, in the midst of the foreclosure morass and economic disaster, returned to the same old bonus behavior, the public sensed one thing: betrayal. The president had become one of "them," and the space for the Tea Party to capture the anxiety of the middle was created. Franklin Roosevelt never would have let it play out this way. He would have raked the Wall Street titans over the coals, demanded that all bonuses be returned, and forced real reform on them. Compare the president's meek statement to Wall Street: We are all in this together. The president ended up getting the worst of all possible bargains. He gave Wall Street what they wanted yet got their enmity. He evoked taxpayer ire by making taxpayers pay for Wall Street excess, yet didn't align himself with the taxpayer emotionally.

Sunday, October 31, 2010

Blame Game

One of the great unreported stories of the NLCS...Utley's really poor defense.

Chase Utley deserves a lot of the blame for the loss, but so too do Ibanez and Victorino, I think, in that order.

Ibanez was terrible. such a streaky hitter and he never caught fire during the entire series. I was looking at the stats and he hit .211 with 0 RBIs (only he and Howard were the only regulars with no runs batted in). Ibanez's futility is highlighted by the fact that Jimmy Rollins didn't score a run the entire series, even while batting 6th (ahead of Ibanez) and getting on base 8 times with 2 stolen bases.

Victorino hit .208 but didn't really seem to be a factor. Still don't understand why Charlie didn't run him more.

Interestingly, Carlos Ruiz only hit .167, worst among regulars, even below Utley's pathetic .182. But he did get on base in every game but one. He's been such an underrated player for this team, maybe this stat among all others highlights the adage "so goes Chooch, so go the Phillies."

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Dopey Donovan

Obama's Housing Secretary offers this nugget of wisdom in response to foreclosure-gate and the administration's opposition to a foreclosure moratorium:


Another unintended consequence of a blanket moratorium on foreclosure sales, even where problems haven't yet been found, is that it could cause servicers to take their eyes off the ball when it comes to helping at-risk homeowners stay in their homes well before their problems reach the crisis of a foreclosure.


Across the country, struggling homeowners are increasingly tripped up by mortgage lenders that press ahead with foreclosures regardless of any effort they make to provide borrowers with relief on unaffordable mortgages.

Which raises the questions of whether Shaun Donovan knows what is happening in the housing industry and whether he is even qualified to be Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. 

Why Democrats are Losing

One need only look at senior Senate Democrat (and thankfully retiring) Kent Conrad and his bizarre defense of the TARP program to understand why Democrats are about to get their asses handed to them in Tuesday's elections.


Conrad, the WaPo reports, is crisscrossing North Dakota and even taking out newspaper ads defending TARP and the Wall Street bailout. Conrad's argument seems to be that TARP was necessary to avoid another Great Depression and that the federal bailouts helped stave off that calamity. As an aside, Conrad notes that TARP was proposed and supported by George W. Bush.

The argument is disingenuous at best, clueless at worst.

Progressives and the rest of the country aren't angry at TARP per se (though, ironically enough, conservative Republicans are). What middle class America is angry about are what came before and since TARP.

TARP may have been necessary. But it was necessary because Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke completely mistook the housing bubble, famously declaring that the subprime housing crisis was contained and would not effect the larger housing market or economy. TARP was necessary because a bipartisan group of policymakers allowed some banks to grow so big they were literally, too big to fail.

The electorate is angry because no bank executives lost their jobs - and no Washington policymaker even demanded such - even after nearly ruining the world economy and requiring a $700 billion bailout.

The electorate is angry because after getting $700 billion taxpayer funds and nearly ruining their institutions, bankers found a way to give themselves multimillion dollar "performance" bonuses.

The electorate is angry because after creating the housing bubble and being bailed out, banks are returning the favor to taxpayers for their help by foreclosing on them in record numbers, often with fraudulent documents and testimony. The electorate is angry because the Obama administration appears more interested in expediting these foreclosures than following legal rules...like evidence. Speaking of which, how ironic that Turbo Timmy Geithner defended AIG's executive bonuses under the banner of "rule of law' and the "sanctity of contracts" but has been curiously silent while accumulating evidence suggests that homeowners are being tossed out of their homes by banks that are not respecting the rule of law or following the particulars of contract language or well settled case law.

Democrats are demoralized cause "leaders" like Conrad have no balls. TARP was created by George W. Bush. So why is any Democrat defending it? If the roles were reversed and TARP had been created by Obama, Republicans would be attacking Obama and TARP relentlessly. Not defending it. It's one of the key differences between Republicans and Democrats. Democrats bring a spoon to a knife fight. Republicans bring an Uzi.

Democrats are angry because they thought electing a black man who grew up in a single parent home would understand and work harder to help the middle and lower classes. That hasn't happened. The rich keep getting richer, often with the support of Washington politicians. As Kent Conrad is showing, the country is run by a bipartisan oligarch of moneyed interests.

Since that's the case, why not allow Republicans control. At least they don't make a pretense of caring about the bottom 90%. Democrats have shown they either don't care or incapable of delivering. 


 
  

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

The Big Kid

Former Eagle and now Giant Shawn Andrews gets a NY TImes profile. Things appear to be working out for him in New York. Congratulations and good luck, Big Kid.

Sunday, October 24, 2010

This Sucks

This NLCS loss was just so disappointing because the expectations were so high. This team is stacked.

And it's not being a sore loser to point out that this Giants team is not very good - the lineup is pathetic though the pitching is pretty good. I mean, Aubrey Huff? Juan Uribe? Edgar Renteria? Rowand? Give me a break. On the other hand, they managed to win the west, beat the Phils and win the pennant so there must be something there.

For whatever reason, the Phils couldn't get the hits when they needed them - when guys were on base. And the Giants seemingly did get hits every time they got a guy in scoring position. And even with all that, they barely eeked out 3 1 run games.

On another note, I once again need to re-evaluate my relationship with sports and why i am so emotionally invested in my favorite teams winning when rationally speaking I derive no tangible benefit from their winning (nor suffer a measurable loss when they lose). In the larger scheme of things whether Ryan Howard, who doesn't know me from a hole in the wall, can hit a ball safely and score a run to win a baseball game probably shouldn't affect me the way it did.

By the way, check out some of the philly.com message boards today. It looks like Ryan Howard may be the new Donovan McNabb in the philly fandom pantheon of hate. What I don't understand is while he didn't get an RBI, Howard hit pretty well overall, just not with runners on. There are plenty of other guys in that lineup that were worse offensively over the course of the series: Victorino, Utley and especially Ibanez.

Saturday, October 23, 2010

Stat of the Day

How telling is the Phillies' LCS offensive slump that not one but two pitchers have the highest batting averages on the team through five games. Both Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt are batting .333. The next highest are Howard and Polanco at .294.

WTF?

The normally sane Bill Conlin suggests sitting Ryan Howard - he of the .294 LCS average with 3 walks and 3 doubles - because he hasn't driven in a run this series?!!?

Friday, October 22, 2010

I believe

More hope from the Times:


Twice — in the 1987 N.L.C.S. against St. Louis and the 2002 World Series against the Angels — the Giants have led three games to two and lost the final two games on the road. If they scrap as they have all series, they have a chance to reverse that history.

Something Magical

"I think we're all looking forward to what it's going to be like," Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins said. "We know something's going to happen — something magical is going to happen." - NY Times.

Game 5

Random thoughts from last night's nail biting, must win:

* Lincecum looked uneasy early in 1st and then settled down. Halladay looked unsettled in the 2nd and now we know why, a strained groin he suffered that inning. 

* We know Halladay is intense, but we saw the feistiness last night as stared down Burrell in the 2nd.

* The Phillies really missed the opportunity to deliver a knockout blow in the 3rd with 4 on the board and runners on 2nd and 3rd.

* Werth's throw to get Ross at third to end the 4th didn't look like a hose but it was a strong, strong throw.

* Was this Halladay's best outing of the season? Yes, he's thrown a perfect game and a post-season no-hitter. And yet, grinding out a win when you don't have your best stuff, are hurt, and conditions are poor (like the downpour last night) when your team's season is on the line is a masterful performance even if it isn't pretty.

* Question for Manuel - in the top of the 7th, if you knew you were pinch hitting for Halladay why didn't you have the struggling Ibanez bunt Rollins to 2nd after his lead off hit. that way, you give Ruiz and Gload chances to knock him in. Or maybe the plan was for Rollins to steal 2nd during Ibanez's at bat, but never got the chance. he wound up stealing 2nd and 3rd.

* Pat the Bat's 8th inning strike out was vintage Burrell: flailing at a low and away pitch.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Game 4's 3 Takeaways

My brother's take on Game 4 maneuvers:

I love Sheridan. I think that's a good assessment, but everyone changes the way they manage in playoffs and give early hooks. Blanton wasn't bad. 
Also - announcers kept saying how Blanton didn't get through 5.  NEITHER did Bumgarner.  They didn't mention that once. 
We lost because of 3 things -
     Better timely hitting, but still need to improve Ruiz thrown out at plate - just a terrible call by 3rd base coach - 1st and 3rd with Utley up and 1 out.  That's a run we gave up there.
     Our bullpen didn't come through.
     Unless there was a matchupo he didn't like with lidge, Lidge has to be in game before you use Oswalt.  You have to use your relievers before going to 2 games ago starter.       Didn't kill us, but just thought it should have been Lidge/Romero.
     By the way, Kendrick should come up with injury so we can bring someone else onto roster.  He obviously is not going to play.  Obvious at this point thye only way he was getting in series was if we were down 9-1 in 3rd inning.

More Pitching Decisions

From PK:


Manuel still had Romero in the 'pen as well. I don't think using Oswalt was crazy, but I'd have preferred waiting till the 11th or 12th inning, if we got into one of those types of games. The inability to plate Werth, standing on 2nd with no one out, is criminal. I was wrong when I suggested Francisco should have been bunting, i forgot that Jimmy was hitting behind Werth, so he made that 1st out. 
 
At that point I think you've gotta go with Gload. I'm also tired of watching our guys get on base and not steal bases. We did it in Game 2, and that's it.

Managerial Moves

Phil Sheridan says Manuel should have stayed with Blanton longer - that if he was going to pitch him in game 4, then he should have gone "all in" with him and let him pitch through the 6th (when the phils still had the lead), rather than rely on Contreras, durbin, et. al.

My one big question/curiousity is that Madson pitched two innings. I know the Giants had last ups and the standard play is for the visiting team to only throw their closer if they take the lead in the top of the extra inning. But still, the preference was to pitch Oswalt on his in between day rather than try to have Lidge go 2 innings (the 10th and possibly the 11th)? At the very least, by putting lidge out there you forestall a decision on having to pitch Oswalt.

Game 4 analysis

From PK:


He left Blanton in 1 batter too long - could have gone lefty-on-lefty with Huff up in bottom 5, but didn't. He got lucky Durbin only gave up 2 runs - 4 of his 1st 5 batters were doubles and walks.
 
And letting Francisco hit with Werth on 2nd, no one out, was a mistake. Ben either needed to be laying down a bunt or lifted for a lefty bat.
 
Oswalt was curious, but not horrible. An in between day, that didn't burn him for Game 6.
 
It just felt like Charlie was managing for the tie, not the win.

Game 4

A real gut punch loss. What in the world was up with usiing oswalt?  Had a bad feeling when they couldn't score werth from 2nd in 8th.

And yet, a halladay win tomorrow gets us back to philly for game 6.

The flyers proved it possible and the phils have the talent to do it. 

Friday, October 15, 2010

H2O all wet with Giants

Ugh, the Giants were the only team this season to have beaten all three of the Phils' aces: Halladay, Oswalt, AND Hamels.

Why Dems are about to lose control of Congress?

From the NYTimes editorial today about the mortgage/foreclosure debacle:


Throughout this crisis, the Obama administration has been far more worried about protecting the banks than protecting homeowners. 

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Replay

Fascinating look at MLB's attempts to orderly archive every play of every game for future reference.

Change I Can Believe In?

Apparently President Obama's vow to make his administration the most transparent in history doesn't extend to releasing a report by his Homeland Security department examining how an illegal immigrant who was twice arrested for DUI wasn't deported before he tragically drove drunk again and killed a nun. Who the heck is the Obama administration protecting and why are they burying the investigation's findings that would help avoid repeating the shameful government permissiveness in tolerating illegal and deadly actions by illegal immigrants.

Saturday, October 09, 2010

What's the Rule?

If Utley did miss third and was called out on a Reds' appeal, what happens to Werth's run?


PK's take: That would have been 2nd out, but what's the rule on that? Would the play have stood except Utley would be considered out? So that Werth's run counted. Or would it be considered an out and a dead ball, with Werth still on 3rd and Rollins on 1st?
At that stage, Howard's K was only out, so Utley would have been 2nd out.
Because Raul strokes a single next play, so werth's run probably scores any way you slice it. 

Why is the onus on the opposing team to appeal the missed bag? If an ump sees a player miss a bag, can he call him out?
It's the strangest custom. I mean, if a batter passes the plane on a check swing, the home plate ump can call him out. He doesn't have to wait for the catcher to appeal to the 1st base ump.

My brother's interpretation: Not sure on rule.  One possibility COULD be – werth is also out for…passing Utley on the basepaths.  If Utley doesn't touch 3rd, but werth does (in effect before Utley) then he passed him on basepaths and would be out too. I doubt that's the rule especially if it happened on appeal.  More likely is werth's run does count or he has to go back to 3rd.  I'm going to look it up. It would have changed landscape especially considering he would of scored easily because of Phillips error.

My take: Rolen says he saw Utley touch the corner of the bag, but it does point out the weirdness of the appeal rule. Just because Rolen saw it doesn't mean the ump saw it. Just to be doubly sure - and since it doesn't cost the Reds anything - and maybe the ump didn't have the angle Rolen did, why not appeal Utley's touch of 3B?

Utley

Did Utley touch 3B last night? Was he actually hit by a pitch? The answer to the 2nd question is likely "no."


As for the first question, my brother chimes in:

The utley at 3rd they showed one replay and pretty quickly. Missing 3rd is kind of a big deal (like ron burgundy). IF he misses it then that's possibly the play of the series. Phils would be down 4-3 inning over (I think). 1 replay!!! Utley at 2nd was brutal too. And even the camera on rollins hit sort of sucked.

Game 2

My friend PK's take:


Bruce has struggled in RF in both games. He's battling weird demons out there. He does this bizarre thing where he shades his eyes with his glove every time there's a fly ball out there. I've watched a ton of Phillies baseball the past 3 yrs. I've never seen Werth do that, once. Yet Bruce can't seem to see a thing out there. How odd. 
 
TBS announcers stink so bad, their camera angles are soooo bad. We still don't have a good view of the Utley play at 2b, nor one of him at 3B, whether he touched either bag. 
 
And then in the 9th we had to tolerate Joe Simpson's "analysis", in which he talked about how Lidge "lost his slider" last year. Huh? Dude, he lost his fastball. He couldn't locate his fastball in the K zone, so it didn't matter how good his slider was, because they knew it was coming and just teed off on it.

Game 2

Wierd game last night. Oswalt didn't have much but managed to limit the damage - which would have been even less if the phils normally stellar defense hadn't been so poor. The phils in the field looked as unsettled as little roy on the mound. (Phillips' comments about oswalt making a lot of mistakes I hope doesn't hold).

But then the reds collapsed. Chapman must still be figuring out how they scored on him.

Friday, October 08, 2010

More Doctober

How did Doc lose 10 games?


The Washington Post answers the question. "He had 11 starts when the Phillies scored two runs or less for him and, even though his ERA was 1.72 in those games, he still went 4-6."

I'm not sure which is more amazing: the 1.72 ERA, the fact that he lost 6 games with an ERA that low, or the fact that he managed to win 4 games when the Phils only scored two or less runs for him.

Thursday, October 07, 2010

Halladay

Toronto is still a fan of Halladay and apparently thrilled about his opportunity to play in the playoffs and the no-hitter. Of course, the perfecto and no no may not compare to the "good part about being a baseball player." And who knew Halladay is Mormon?

Doctober!

Halladay was in the groove last night. Anybody could see that. He was in a real rythym mowing them down till the walk, which really bummed me out because I was considering the unthinkable possible. 


Simply amazing.

Before the game, I was afraid that if the Phils somehow lost that they would have to stew for a whole off day thinking about having their ace lose and being down 1-0 and the pressure on Oswalt to even the series.

I never thought that the Reds could be no-hit -- and now its  them that have to sit around for an extra day and think about being no hit.

If Oswalt can start the first couple of innings strong tomorrow night, this thing could snowball against the Reds and really get into their heads about how unhittable the Phils' staff is.

BTW, I was at Halladay's last regular season start vs. the Nationals where they clinched the division (coincidentally in weather very similar to last night with showers throughout the middle innings.) He threw a 2 hit shutout then, so in his last 18 innings he's thrown 2 complete game shutouts with 2 hits and 1 walk.

Welcome to the post-season, Mr. Halladay!

Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Obama Democratic Gut Check

Forget about the lack of a public option in the health care act. Forget about not closing Guatanamo Bay or not stopping the torture of terrorism suspects in custody. Forget about the appointments of Turbo Timmy Geithner and Larry Summers to lead his economic team. Forget about defending the Bush TARP program. Forget about the criticism of the "professional left." Forget about the failure to extend middle class tax cuts and to impose slightly higher rates on the richest Americans.


No, less than a month before the election, Barack Obama will get to prove his Democratic bona fides-- or not-- based on whether he signs or vetoes H.R. 3808, a Wall Street bill to help the country's (world's) largest banks escape the massive mortgage document fraud that they and their service provider subsidiaries have perpetrated in illegally foreclosing on tens of thousands of homes of middle class families.

In Defense of the Phillies

PK suggests that it is pitching and especially defense that helped the Phillies to the best record in all of baseball. And by the way, it is amazing that this is the first time the Phillies had the best record in the entire league...after 123 years!


The best defense in NL is something that is more scary than anything else.

The Braves defensive breakdown against the Phils is what led to us sweeping them. I'm increasingly falling in line with the defensive saber-metrics guys.

F walks and OBP - the things that make Adam Dunn so valuable - what makes Werth soooo valuable is his fielding. He's just about the best RF fielding wise in MLB.
Our defense - with Gold Glove-caliber-play at catcher, 2B, SS, 3B, CF, RF - is a hallmark of this Phillies squad. And it is, in large part, why we won the division this season.

Tuesday, October 05, 2010

True?

The ESPN crawl notes that the Rangers are the only MLB team to have never won a playoff series. Seriously?! 


Have the Nationals...as the Expos?

An Issue of Timing

Much has already been made of Andy Reid's boneheaded clock mismanagement at the end of the 1st half of the Redskins-Eagles game that resulted in a delay of game that likely cost the Eagles a TD and probably the game.


But while the delay of game has gotten most of the attention, Reid's decision immediately prior to it was even worse and, considering the situation, made it one of the most stupendously stupid time management decisions in recent years.

As everyone knows by now, with 30 seconds to go in the 1st half LeSean McCoy was tackled just short of the goal line but close enough for a booth review. The review was surprisingly long (as were all of the instant replay reviews in the game), lasting nearly 5 minutes. Replays showed that McCoy was tackled before crossing the goal line. The referee announced the decision and started the game clock (because it had been a running play), whereupon Andy Reid called timeout 7 seconds later, with 23 seconds left in the half - and appeared to immediately ask the officials why the ball had been moved back from its original spot. The rest is well known. Because it was under 2 minutes, the timeout was only a 30 second timeout, Kolb was seen running into the huddle with 11 seconds on the play clock and the delay of game was called shortly after.

The incident appears to have settled the annual criticism/debate over who was more at fault for the Eagles continually poor clock management during the Reid/McNabb years by placing responsibility for this unbelievably questionable decision squarely on the shoulders of Andy Reid (notwithstanding Reid's cryptic suggestion that fault lay with the referees when he said in his Monday press conference that to discuss it would be too "expensive," presumably because of a possible league fine for criticizing the officiating).

While the delay of game was inexcusable on its face, just as big a question - which has not been satisfactorily answered and suggests a fundamental lack of understanding about time management principles - is why Reid called the time out when he did.

Why didn't Reid let the clock wind down to about 3 seconds before calling timeout?

It was 4th and 1. Either the Eagles were going to attempt a FG or go for the TD. Either way it should have been the last play of the half (the PAT can be done with 0 seconds on the clock because time does not run during such a play).

Instead, Reid called timeout with 23 seconds left. WHY?!?!?

Presumably, it was because of the "urgency" of questioning why the ball was moved back from its original spot (note this issue is rather unclear. From the replays I saw, the ball was spotted just inside the 1 yard line. I haven't been able to see on any replay where or how the refs moved the ball back to that spot which allegedly prompted Reid's question).

Regardless of the moving spot, Reid should have had the presence of mind to let the clock run down to 3 seconds before calling timeout and questioning the officials. The fact that the timeout occurred immediately after a nearly 5 minute instant replay delay only adds insult to injury. The entire Eagles offensive coaching staff had plenty of time to figure out how and when to call their timeout once play resumed. Compounding the gaffe (as if that were possible), is that had Reid let the clock run down 27 seconds he would have essentially doubled the length of his 30 second time out and given his coaching staff twice as much time to come up with a goal line play.

Was Reid thinking that a failed 4th down TD attempt would leave the ball so close to the goal line that the Redskins might be at risk of a safety on their first play to run out the first half clock? Such a possibility seems far fetched.

The net result was that following the delay of game, the Eagles kicked the field goal and wound up having to kickoff. It was a kickoff that never should have happened and for which Andy Reid still hasn't and never will properly explain.

Bearing Down

Stat that was just shown on ESPN. 


The top 4 hardest to hit pitchers with runners in scoring position this year:

Clay Buchholz .161
Roy Halladay .173
Josh Johnson .181
Roy Oswalt .186

Goose Eggs















Halladay was dominant in his 21st win and NL East clinching victory. As my grandmom would say (usually during a Steve Carlton shut out gem), "look at all those goose eggs!"

A Ring to Shoot For















I think this is one of the Phils' minority owners, one row in front of David Montgomery. Note the humongous hardware on his finger which I can only guess is the World Series championship ring. Does he only break this out for special occasions - like winning another division title - or is it always being worn?

NL East Clincher















Braving the threatening weather, I had the opportunity to attend the Phillies-Nats game in which the Phils clinched the NL East (thanks PK!). The seats were great. We were one row behind Phils' President David Montgomery (in blue), who kept score on a blank sheet of paper under plastic protection throughout the drizzle.

ScaRED

My brother is also getting pre-NLDS nerves. He writes:


Want to get scared read philly.com article on 20 things about reds
Volquez - sub 2 era in september. Game 2/3 pitchers 3.8 range
Best offense in NL. Led league in runs, homers, batting average, rbi's. tied best D in NL. Least errors in reds history (72, previous best was 89).
Votto best ops in NL. Hit .393 against phils.
Oswalt is 23-3 lifetime (part of pk 30-4 comment) BUT 0-2 this year w/ 6.75 era.
Last - baker and manual were once traded for each other!!!!!

Dusty Baker Strategy?

Again from my friend PK who suggests Dusty Baker's strategy in throwing Voquez in game 1:


Look at these Reds' pitchers' stats. Arroyo is clearly their best pitcher, 17-10 on the season with a 3.88 ERA.
Baker seems to be offering up a worse pitcher against Halladay in order to back load for Games 2, 3, expecting to lose Game 1 -- no matter who he starts -- but then giving himself a better chance in the other 2 games. If he can get 4-5 innings in Game 1 from Volquez, then just put in all his lefty relievers -- Wood, Rhodes, etc -- he might be able to steal game 1. If not, no big deal.

Why it's Roy, Roy, Cole?

Hamels' stats at Cincy may be the reason he's the game 3 starter vs. the Reds, rather than the Manuel's desire to pitch Oswalt in a game 5.

Red Alert

My friend PK, who is "officially freaked out" about this upcoming series with the Reds (as am I) turns to the stats to try to soothe our nerves.


* Our Big 3 are career 30-4 against the Reds.
* Hamels is 3-0 with a 1.00-ish ERA at Cincy.
* The Reds opening starter, Volquez, went 4-3 with a 4.31 ERA this season, roughly matching his career 4.36 ERA.
* Volquez is 1 of 3 right-handed starters the Reds are throwing against us.
* Wood - the lefty who nearly threw the no-no/perfecto against us, is not starting. He's in the 'pen.

The Real Big Miss

Kevin Kolb's "big miss" was not the DeSean Jackson pass, but failing to see and throw to a wide open Jeremy Maclin running a slant from the left side on the failed 2 point conversion try. That easy completion would have allowed the Eagles to tie the score with a FG at the end of the game rather than try for the Hail Mary.

Monday, October 04, 2010

Wild Card

It is interesting that because of the intradivision prohibition, the Phils and Rays both get to play division winners with worse records than the wildcard teams in their own divisions. The Rays get a 90 win Texas team and not the 95 win Yanks. 

the Phils get a 91 win Reds team and not the 91 win Braves (the Giants wound up with 92 wins). The Twins wound up with 1 less win than the Yanks but get homefield advantage against them for winning the division.

Welcome Back McNabb

Could yesterday's game gone any better for Donovan McNabb in his return to Philadelphia?


He got a standing ovation upon his introduction that surely was gratifying to him. He got booed as he trotted on the field for his first series which was a blessing to all those who hate Eagle fans.His heir apparent didn't start and then had to come into the game, unprepared, after Vick got hurt. Andy Reid proved that it's the coach and not the quarterback that has been the source of boneheaded clock management, McNabb got his slight (deserved) dig in on the Eagles after being presented with the game ball, and oh yes, the Redskins won the game.

The whole game had a weird feel to it. As my friend PK noted afterwards, "Remember how awesome the TO-returns game was, Eagles-Cowboys, down to
the wire, Bledsoe throwing pick to Lito in end zone? Remember how awesome that game was? This game was the exact opposite. Atrocious on all sides of the ball, with both coaches making terrible clock management issues, etc. I'm not even sure I'd be happy if Avant had pulled down that ball at the finish." I have to agree, the entire game was anti-climactic and ragged. Even the Eagles last second chance to win, to say nothing of the ball hitting Avant right in the hands, somehow was not the thrilling but just "huh?"

Other thoughts:

* McNabb got skewered fro "missing" a wide open Fred Davis. The wind was blustery and more importantly, Davis did manage to get two hands on it so I'm not sure how much he "missed" him.

* Pam Oliver is either a huge McNabb fan or a Philly hater. The opening remark in her post-game, on-field interview with McNabb was about the standing ovation "that lasted about three seconds" as she had a smirk on her face. Way to stay positive, Pam. It was an honest display of fan appreciation for McNabb's time in Philadelphia.

* Somehow the booing on McNabb's first series seemed not only appropriate but poetic, particularly after the standing ovation. It sent the unmistakable message that McNabb may be appreciated but he plays for the opposing team now.

* The media has been dying for McNabb to say something inflammatory about Philadelphia or the Eagles but he didn't oblige. When he finally opaquely referred to the situation in the confines of his locker room after the game and after being given the game ball by saying that "people make mistakes and they made one last spring" the Fox talking heads pounced, suggesting that McNabb just couldn't let it go and was providing the Eagles with bulletin board fodder for their next meeting. Personally, I would have preferred he said, "playing here [in Philadelphia] is tough and I know it from personal experience, and it's even harder for opposing teams and so this road win is a great accomplishment for the whole team." 

* To me, the defining McNabb play of the game came with 3:53 left and the redskins facing 3rd and 4 from their own 22. McNabb scrambled 18 yards for a first down at the 40. It's the kind of demoralizing play McNabb routinely made against the redskins for, well, 11 years. Now, the shoe is on the other foot. If I'm Danny Snyder, that is the play that made trading McNabb all worth it - to see him scrambling for him rather than against him.

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Best NL record

Maybe more important than getting home field advantage in the World Series for winning the all-star game-- especially for the Phils and this year in particular -- is the fact that the NL team with the best record gets to decide when it starts the NLDS. The one NLDS series has an extra off day, meaning that the Phils could throw pitch their top 3 aces on normal rest for the entire 5 games.

And for the NLCS and World Series, they could pitch all three twice (if necessary) on normal rest with presumably Blanton getting the other two (game 4) starts.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

My theory of change

I have 2 theories about the Mike Vick replacing Kevin Kolb as the starter, one of which has already been publicly floated in lots of places. 


1) Reid's genuinely concerned about Kolb long-term, especially with the current state of the O-line, and didn't want to put him at risk long term both in terms of physically and psychologically coming back after Vick's big 6 quarters of football.

This would fit his MO of making bizarre statements and decisions in an attempt to protect his players - in this case, the O-line. The problem with this theory is that Reid could have achieved the same ultimate goal by saying that while Kolb's concussion test was normal, out of an abundance of caution they are going to keep him out till his head is completely cleared. This would also play well given the controversy surrounding their game day handling of Bradley and Kolb in the Packers game.

2) My personal theory (that I am still working out) is that Reid viewed this season as the Kolb transition season with relatively low expectations on both O and D and the long-term plan was for Kolb to get the experience necessary for a really great season next year. Of course, after 4 years you would think Kolb could easily take the reins but there is something to be said for actual game experience.

Under my theory, it's not really Kolb or Vick's play so much that influenced Reid's decision (though Vick helped his cause) but the realization that the NFC is WIDE OPEN this year now that Dallas is 0-2, the Vikings are 0-2, the Giants are middling, the NFC west is mediocre and the Eagles held their own against the best team in the conference (the Packers).

So Reid has now switched gears and instead of expecting to take his and Kolb's lumps against Dallas, New Orleans, et. al, he's going to play Vick and actually try to make the playoffs. Forget about the nonsense about needing to give Vick a contract extension. Has no one realized that the Eagles already shipped a better QB than Vick out of town to make way for Kolb. You don't think they'll let #7 test the free agent market next year and say sayonora to him after the season and return to the Kevin Kolb experiment? Please.

If Vick plays well and the team wins games and maybe even makes the playoffs, it's a win. if Vick doesn't play well and the team loses games, then I would fully expect Kolb to be back as starter before the end of the year. Heck, even if Vick plays well but the team still loses Kolb would likely be back as starter as they lay the groundwork for next season (unless the O-line doesn't gel and is truly horrendous in which case they might stay with Vick to keep Kolb from getting killed). 

Reiding into things

My brother is as bewildered as anybody about the Kolb-Vick saga and Andy Reid's role in it:


Possible issue w/ Kolb – that's a guess.  Something the team knows – i.e. drugs, steroids, beat his wife, something???  Nothing else makes sense.
 
Why not just say – going with the hot hand and we want to make sure Kevin is fine before putting him out there.   We have 2 great qb's and we're lucky and we have confidence in both and Mike is going to play this week.  Sure you get the looking over your shoulder possibility and the media would feed off that, but it HAS TO BE BETTER THAN WHAT HE SAID.!!!!!!
 
NOW, Reid looks like a liar.  This is his most obvious one, but Reid says he's my guy and we're happy with our receivers all the time.  It's BS and this is another example.  He's lying and people now know that.  Loses credibility and that's not good.

Kolb vs. Vick

My friend PK's take on the stunning QB turn of events:


The most annoying thing about Andy over the years was also one of the things that made him a great coach: his stubborn loyalty, his sense of never hitting the panic button.

It was maddening at times -- why did you call 62 pass plays and 13 runs in a game you never trailed by more than 4 pts, coach? I did what was best for the team, blah, blah, blah.

As maddening as it was, it sent a sense of calm amid the storm. That he knew what was going on, that he had the confidence in the system and the team, and that the players fed off that.

These moves this week are only the 2nd time in his 11-plus-year tenure when it appears he hit the panic button. The 1st, at halftime in Baltimore in '08, when he yanked Donovan from a 12-7 game, which we ended up losing 36-7. The panic button was immediately placed back inside its box as Donovan was quickly named the starter and the team went on a great run in which No 5 probably played the best football of his life, coming up just short of beating Ariz to go to the Super Bowl.

This, this week, this is soooooo out of character. No clue what to make of it.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Football Stands

My friend who is a Giants' fan asks:


DId the Colts fan have a legal obligation to give the helmet back to the Giants, or the NFL or anyone?  Do you waive your right to keep objects that come into the stands at a football game as part of yoru ticket purchase?
 
not sure if its just baseball culture that lets you keep objects that fly into the stands that isn't there in football....


i was fascinated by that standoff and wish there were more coverage of it and what ultimately happened.

I thought fans could keep footballs that were kicked in to the stands - remember that crazy guy that jumped out of his seat and down in to the concourse portal while actually catching the attempted FG? I htink it was a Monday nigher in Chicago.

judging by all the security that got involved, i presume the fan is not allowed to keep the helmet, even if the player does throw it into the stands (accidentally in the case of Jacobs). But i also assumed that, like baseball, when a fan returns a players bat that's flown into the stands, the equipment manager gives the fan a spare in return. 

i know teams keep spare helmets and assorted equipment on the sidelines in case stuff breaks. I would have assumed the Giants gave the fan another helmet, but can't say for sure that did happen since NBC didn't follow up. 

The other question i have is liability. all tickets have teh standard disclaimer and liability waiver about fan injury resulting from objects emanating from the field of play. Does this also apply to equipment thrown by a player into the stands that is not part of the normal course of the game? If the fan was injured, does he have a claim against Jacobs, the Giants, the NFL, Colts, and/or operators of Lucas Stadium?

Any other insights to this?


 

 

Congratulations Roy Halladay

The first Phillies 20 game winner since '82!

Shocking

Stunning news that Andy Reid has reversed course and named Mike Vick the Eagles' starting QB.


My guess is that it has less to do with Kolb's play (or Vick's though Vick's played well) but more to do with the poor play of the offensive line and the need to have a much more mobile QB to succeed.

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Eagles Lions

Well, opening day could not have gone worse for Andy Reid and Kevin Kolb. 


Kolb looked terrible and failed to move the offense before getting hurt. Mike Vick came in and did move the offense. Worse, Kolb is out this week and won't get a chance to shine against probably the worst team the Eagles will play all season. If Vick has as good of a game as he is capable of, it further sets Kolb up for a big fall in a possible defeat against the Jaguars. It's entirely conceivable the Eagles will be facing a full blown QB controversy when former franchise QB Donovan McNabb comes to town on October 3rd. It will be very interesting to see what kind of reception he gets depending on how the next two weeks play out.

In any case, the Lions are improved and the Eagles caught a break in not having to face an injured Matthew Stafford and instead getting to defend Shaun Hill! This might have been a tougher game but early in the season and without their starting QB, the Eagles should win handily. The 6 point spread seems about right. If the Eagles do lose, look out...it's going to be a long season.

Eagles 27
Lions 13

NFL Tickets

As an Eagles' season ticket holder, i found this article about declining attendance at NFL games rather interesting. Notwithstanding the lousy economy that has had a measurable impact on attendance, this is going to be an ongoing problem/trend for the NFL.

Two things of particular note:

Tickets are expensive. As the article notes, the average price is $75, making a season ticket package worth $750...for one ticket.

While some teams, the article references New Orleans and Tampa as two teams that whose cheapest tickets are $35, it doesn't mention that these are obviously the worst tickets in the stadium and fans would be better off watching the game on TV than in person from the nose bleed section. It also doesn't account for all of the ancillary costs that accompany the $35 ticket....$25 parking, $8 beers, $6 hot dogs, etc. Economically, staying at home is a much better deal and that doesn't even count the time involved in traveling to and from the stadium which is at least a 5-6 hour time commitment (not counting tailgating) as compared to the 3 hours from start to finish of watching at home.

And lets face it. The NFL has a huge fan problem in the stadiums. The consensus among my season ticket holding friends is that 14 is the minimum age at which we would bring our children to a game. Because of the language, drunkeness, machismo, and generally boorish fan behavior - all of which is tolerated if not tacitly supported by the teams (actions that i have engaged in myself). It is definitely not a family friendly environment. Certainly not of the order of the other major professional sports, especially baseball. I had the occasion of attending the Eagles-Giants football game  and Yankees-Phillies world series game last year and the experiences could not have been more different. Even though it was a world series game, Citizens Bank Park felt more welcoming, more friendly, and more family oriented than the Linc and the rowdiness and aggressiveness that permeated the crowd.

The larger issue is that the NFL blackout rules are nonsensical. The less fans that go to a game, the less (i.e. NO) fans are able to watch the games on TV. The less games on TV, the less fans are likely to go to games. The NFL relies on approximately 70,000 fans to subsidize the ability of several hundred thousand fans to watch the game on TV. Admittedly, some of those 70,000 change each week, but a core group of 30-40,000 season ticket holders subsidize several magnitudes larger tv viewers. The bottomline is that it is an unsustainable business model.

NFL execs are quick to note that the league is the only one that still offers its games on free TV. That will soon come to an end. The not too distant future is a model in which TV viewers subscribe to watch their home team's games. The only question is how much such a product will cost. My guess it will still be cheaper to buy the games on TV than actually attend in person. The TV experience will still be better and a better deal, though not having a packed stadium in the background will take some getting used to. From the comfort of my couch, i'm sure i'll adjust.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Head Shot

More evidence that brain trauma can happen to any football player - not just the pros - and not just to older players but in this tragically sad case, to 21 year-olds who played since they were 9.

The money quote from the article.

"It's pretty hard to make a jump with one case," said Dr. James Moriarity, the University of Notre Dame's head physician, who oversees the athletic department's medical care. "But if it's true that that happened, it would kill the sport," he said, referring to an amateur player getting C.T.E. "As a parent, it's going to be hard to justify kids going out and doing that."

It is becoming increasingly clear that playing football is hazardous to one's health, especially their mental functioning - and is quickly becoming a life or death issue.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Last 5

Hamels' 25 inning scoreless streak ends but still... 3-0 and 1.77 ERA (or is it 0.77?) in last 5 five starts.

NFL at the apex?

Maybe it's just me and the lack of excitement over the first Eagles team in more than a decade that isn't a favorite to grab one of the top playoff seeds, but I can't help but think that this season- particularly the way this season has started - does not bode well for the NFL.


Indisputably, the league is the glamor professional sports league in the country. And yet, week 1 showed several long-term weaknesses in the game, including a couple that the league should have already addressed and suggest that the top leadership is getting sloppy (and this doesn't even include the pending lockout).

No, exhibit #1 is the Calvin Johnson touchdown catch, or non-touchdown catch. As numerous commentators pointed out, the rule is clear and the correct call was made in ruling it incomplete (and giving the Bears the game). the larger point is that most fans consider the Johnson's catch a touchdown. The fact that the NFL hasn't amended its rules to conform with fan common sense is telling.

But the bigger issue is the ever increasing violence of the game. The Eagles lost two starters for the season in the first week: Leonard Weaver to a horrific knee injury which Fox reported caused several players to become naseuous on the sideline while watching replays. And the owners want to go to an 18 game schedule ... so i can watch a full team of reserves play the games? Please.

No, the biggest issue is the concussion issue. The Eagles also lost two other starters to concussions: the starting QB Kevin Kolb and starting MLB Stewart Bradley.

Bradley's injury was particularly disturbing as he got up, staggered around and then collapsed on the field. Incredibly, no one in a position of authority saw this happen. The fact that both Bradley and Kolb were allowed to return to the game after suffering their brain injuries is inexplicable. Even more inexplicable is that apparently the Eagles followed all of the new concussion protocols put in place to show that the league took the issue of head injuries seriously. Perhaps the complaint shouldn't be against the Eagles (though how no one saw Bradley collapse is bizarre), but that the protocols are so lenient that a clearly punch drunk player can reenter the game. Clearly the league wants to give the appearance of getting tough on concussions without really having to do so. Note that both players hail from a team that came under intense scrutiny and criticism last year for their handling of Brian Westbrook's concussion and that this week's game was on national TV. Even Troy Aikman, the poster boy of concussions, was aghast that the Bradley was back in the game.

How long Bradley and Kolb will be out is the big question. And, indeed, is probably the biggest weakness of the league and their concussion crackdown (so called). I'm admittedly no medical expert, but how can Bradley play this week after his collapse on sunday? If he were a boxer, there wouldn't be a gaming commission in the country that would grant him a license a week after that spectacle. Kolb supposedly has a milder concussion and may play vs the Lions. Maybe. We'll see.

If the league is going to get serious about concussions then it needs to keep players with brain injuries out of games after they've been incurred (same for DeAngelo Hall in Washington, who appeared to be knocked out for a moment after a big hit vs. the Cowboys). What the league is obviously loathe to do is place players on the extended injury list with concussions and thereby draw more attention to the widespread incidences, long-term recuperation and lasting damage of such injuries. 

Forget the 18 game season and forget the players lost to ligament tears and separated shoulders. The greatest threat to the preeminent status of the NFL are concussions, the dirty secret they don't want the public (or players) to know about or be concerned with.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Packers

Interesting game tomorrow vs. the Packers.


What is with the NFL schedulers and their ongoing desire for the Eagles and Pack to play early in the season. Remember the opener the Eagles blew in Green Bay because Andy Reid cut all of his punt returners before the start of the season and then Greg Lewis (?) muffed a punt to lose the game?

Aaron Rodgers has become the poster child for succeeding a team legend and transitioning to a new QB era. Oh that the Eagles changes goes similarly smoothly and successfully.

On that point, while Rodgers is the new fan darling, it's worth mentioning that he's never won a playoff game and while he gets credit for keeping his team in the game vs. Arizona last year - he hasn't been killed - certainly not like McNabb would have been for overthrowing his wide open receiver on a play that would have won them the game. But I guess conventional wisdom being what it is, McNabb is the only inaccurate passer in the league.

Anyway, I don't have a good feeling for this game. I hope i'm proven wrong, but the Packers offense is good, the Eagles D untested (with all of the new players) and the offense has struggled.

A win would be huge against the team everyone is predicting to be the #1 seed when all is said and done this year. Still, can't see it happening.

41-14 Packers?

More Caveats

Oh yes, two other disclaimers. while i like our chances vs. the Niners and Bears, beware west coast travel and Chicago after Halloween.

The Niners would have been a super bowl contender with McNabb, why they didn't pursue him more vigorously we'll never know. But they still should be plenty good to beat us in a regular season home game. And can we really count on Jay Cutler to throw several back breaking INTs again?


PK says:

5-11 is a possibility, when you think about. Muff 1 of those early season games that should be a win - like Jax - and it could all spin the wrong way.

I don't think it's fair to say we split against Dallas, they beat us 3 times last year, twice very badly. As for the Skins, they had a better defense than ours the past 2 seasons or so. It might not show up statistically, we might be slightly better than them, but that's with our offense being so good. Their offense sucked open ass, had tons of 3 and outs, and yet their D kept fighting.
With a good offense, Skins D will be a Top 5 defense this year.

My Eagles Prediction

My projection:


I have them at 9-7 which surprised me that it was so many wins. 

I have them beating the Lions, Jags, 9ers, Bears, Texans, Vikings and all division teams at home. 

I have them losing to Packers, Falcons, Titans, Colts, all division teams on the road.

Of course, i could easily see the Cowboys also beating us at home which brings it down to 8-8.

The entire key to the season will be the Falcons, Titans, 49ers, Bears games. Those are all teams that in theory should be better than last year, some of which we barely beat last time.

A couple other thoughts. 1) the eagles really have benefitted from the skins sucking so bad the past couple years. that is an extra in-division win. before that it was the dave campo/chan gailey cowboys AND the spurrier skins that allowed the eagles to have their way in the division, which then becomes a huge competitive advantage. don't get me wrong, the eagles were good during that run, but their competition in the East was lousy.
i'm also reminded of something jeff pointed out a couple of years ago. You want your hard games to be on the road where you're more likely to lose anyway. Go 6-2 at home and .500 on the road and hello 10-6 and the playoffs (well, unless your the Patriots).

Anyway, it sucks that the Packers and Colts are home games though maybe that is tempered by getting Detroit on the road.
the other wildcard is have no sense of how good either the Giants or Skins will be this year. the skins will likely be improved but by how much. And i have no idea what the Giants are capable or not capable of this year. The Cowboys should win the division with all the uncertainty among their rivals.

Of course, as we all well know, the nfl season is an incredibly long slog and teams that appear down and out even late in the season - like the Eagles did after they benched McNabb and tied the Bungles - can still marshal a push and make the playoffs - where now anything has become possible. You literally just have to be in it to win it.

Still, the Eagles margin for error isn't like in years past when we debated the prospects of 13-3, 13-4 or 11-5.

A 9-7 projection can quickly become 7-9... or worse.

Eagles Predictions 2010, Part 2

Here's my brother's take on the season:

I found some interesting stuff – The Giants and Eagles have murderous schedule at end.  If Andy goes .500 over last 8 weeks we'll win division.  I have eagles starting something like 6-1.

The opener as the only loser.  I've said this before – the opener is HUGE this year.  Sets the tone.  Very good chance of Donovan coming to town with us undefeated (Jags/Lions after the Pack).

We end with cowboys, Giants end at Washington.  If I'm close on my predictions than the last week should be awesome.  I had Cowboys/Skins winning those games – so going into those I'd be at 9-6 eagles, 9-6 giants, 9-6 cowboys, 7-8 redskins.  Off by a game before then and we're all around 8-7.

Eagles middle schedule is interesting with the Niners/Falcons/Bears as big swing games – are those teams really going to better –on paper they are – actually significantly better.  I have us sweeping them.  Then getting it handed to us down the stretch (colts/Vikings/at giants/at redskins cowboys twice).

If we lose the close games – more likely with a new, first-time starting QB – then we're looking at 7-9, maybe even 6-10 considering the schedule.  If the D returns to prominence we could get to 10-6.  With no easy wins for anyone in the East that could take the division.

Cowboys             10-6
Eagles                 9-7  -  I put them second as I think they have the better chance at 9-7 (more confidence with them being 9-7 then Giants)
Giants                  9-7
Redskins              8-8

Eagles Predictions 2010

My brother and friend Pk have usually been pretty accurate in predicting the Eagles' final regular season record. Of course, it hasn't often unfolded the way we envisioned, but the final numbers have been remarkably close to our preseason calls.

This year is a little different. First, the Eagles aren't the automatic playoff team they have been for the past ten years - or more accurately, since Donovan McNabb's been the starter. There's been a lot changes besides trading the franchise QB. Brian Westbrook's departure has garnered surprisingly little attention. The defense, which collapsed in the last two Dallas games - has been overhauled with several new players and some familiar faces returning (Bradley).

Anyway, the next couple of entries are our predictions for the Eagles season. There surprisingly consistent in their outlook, which is essentially something between a 7-9 to 9-7 season. Whether that will be good enough for a wild card spot remains to be seen.


From my friend, PK:

I've got the Eagles winning between 6 and 8 games. And I'm getting them out to a 3-1 start. The keys to the season may well be Games 5, 6 and 7: on the road in SF and Atl at home and Titans on the road. I've got them losing all 3, as we'll be on the road out west (we always lose those games, think Raiders!) and Ryan is a good-to-great QB, and our D now gets killed by those types of QBs.

Then we lose 2 in a row, at home against Colts and on road in DC. I'm giving us a split against NYG and losing both to Dallas. I've got us losing 4 straight at the end of the season, to finish 6-10.

But, we could go 7-9 if we beat SF or Atl or Titans, or 8-8 if we take 2 of the 3. 

Very hard to see us winning 9 games this season, unless our defense is dramatically improved from last year's ridiculously average group.

Those final 8 games, there's not a single layup in the mix. Even the Texans (good-to-great QB) at home is not a lock.

We could easily go 2-6 in the 2nd half of the season. 

Playing the Percentages = 92 x 2

My friend PK looks at the Phils' few weeks to the finish line: 



2 things of note:

* we play 15 of our remaining 21 on the road. If we win at our current win %'s at home and road, we finish with almost 93 wins. Atl plays 13 of remaining 22 at home, and if they win out based on current win %'s at home/road, they win just about 93 games. Damn.

* Charlie is using the Thursday off day to set the pitching lineups perfectly!!! There's 9 games between now and the 9/21 start of the Braves series. Halladay is starting this Fri nigh, and Oswaltshould/could pitch Saturday (he'll have 4 rest days since his Monnight pitching). Then next 2 are Blanton-Kendrick/rookie, then Cole pitches, followed by the Roys games 6 and 7 of this 9-game stretch.Then Blanton-Kendrick/rookie pitch games 8 and 9. Then Hamels starts game 1 of Braves series at home, followed by the Roys in games 2, 3.

Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Key Stat

Perhaps the KEY stat as far as the Phils' playoff drive is concerned.



The Phillies have 26 regular-season games remaining to overtake the Braves. Thanks to Amaro, 15 or 16 of them will be started by Halladay, Roy Oswalt, or Cole Hamels.