Monday, November 16, 2009

Reid doesn't win close games

My frustrated friend PK does a statistical analysis of the Reid era in light of the past two losses.

OK, I've gone back and run the numbers from 2001 on, checking to see how much worse Andy has gotten over the years in close games. 

What I did was use the basic math of 7 pts or less, a pure 1 possession game, not even an 8-pt game where the deck is stacked against you by requiring a 2-pt conversion. So today's 8-pt loss doesn't statistically count.The reality is exactly as Jeff said last week, that the Eagles used to be far better in close games. Here's the rundown of the team record in reg season and playoff games decided by 7 pts or fewer:

'01: 3-3
'02: 4-3
'03: 7-2
'04: 4-1
'05: 3-5
'06: 4-5
'07: 3-4
'08: 1-6-1
'09: 0-2

Worth noting: That lone victory of 7 pts or less in '08 came because NYG scored a TD with 10 secs left in the game, the only other TD the scored being a blocked FG at the gun at the end of the 1st half that G-men ran back for a TD. Yes, there are other games that were essentially close that the Eagles won -- like the Vikes playoff game last year, which we were leading 16-14 in the 4thQ until Westbrook's screen-pass TD broke it open.

But there's an undeniable reality to Andy's teams. From '01-'04, they were 18-9 in games decided by 7 pts or less. In the '05-'09 run, they are 11-22-1 in those close games. A large chunk of that drop off is this season and last, obviously, but the other portion of that drop off comes as Reid systematically abandons the running game.

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