Best NL record

Maybe more important than getting home field advantage in the World Series for winning the all-star game-- especially for the Phils and this year in particular -- is the fact that the NL team with the best record gets to decide when it starts the NLDS. The one NLDS series has an extra off day, meaning that the Phils could throw pitch their top 3 aces on normal rest for the entire 5 games.

And for the NLCS and World Series, they could pitch all three twice (if necessary) on normal rest with presumably Blanton getting the other two (game 4) starts.

My theory of change

I have 2 theories about the Mike Vick replacing Kevin Kolb as the starter, one of which has already been publicly floated in lots of places. 

1) Reid's genuinely concerned about Kolb long-term, especially with the current state of the O-line, and didn't want to put him at risk long term both in terms of physically and psychologically coming back after Vick's big 6 quarters of football.

This would fit his MO of making bizarre statements and decisions in an attempt to protect his players - in this case, the O-line. The problem with this theory is that Reid could have achieved the same ultimate goal by saying that while Kolb's concussion test was normal, out of an abundance of caution they are going to keep him out till his head is completely cleared. This would also play well given the controversy surrounding their game day handling of Bradley and Kolb in the Packers game.

2) My personal theory (that I am still working out) is that Reid viewed this season as the Kolb transition season with relatively low expectations on both O and D and the long-term plan was for Kolb to get the experience necessary for a really great season next year. Of course, after 4 years you would think Kolb could easily take the reins but there is something to be said for actual game experience.

Under my theory, it's not really Kolb or Vick's play so much that influenced Reid's decision (though Vick helped his cause) but the realization that the NFC is WIDE OPEN this year now that Dallas is 0-2, the Vikings are 0-2, the Giants are middling, the NFC west is mediocre and the Eagles held their own against the best team in the conference (the Packers).

So Reid has now switched gears and instead of expecting to take his and Kolb's lumps against Dallas, New Orleans, et. al, he's going to play Vick and actually try to make the playoffs. Forget about the nonsense about needing to give Vick a contract extension. Has no one realized that the Eagles already shipped a better QB than Vick out of town to make way for Kolb. You don't think they'll let #7 test the free agent market next year and say sayonora to him after the season and return to the Kevin Kolb experiment? Please.

If Vick plays well and the team wins games and maybe even makes the playoffs, it's a win. if Vick doesn't play well and the team loses games, then I would fully expect Kolb to be back as starter before the end of the year. Heck, even if Vick plays well but the team still loses Kolb would likely be back as starter as they lay the groundwork for next season (unless the O-line doesn't gel and is truly horrendous in which case they might stay with Vick to keep Kolb from getting killed). 

Reiding into things

My brother is as bewildered as anybody about the Kolb-Vick saga and Andy Reid's role in it:

Possible issue w/ Kolb – that's a guess.  Something the team knows – i.e. drugs, steroids, beat his wife, something???  Nothing else makes sense.

 

Why not just say – going with the hot hand and we want to make sure Kevin is fine before putting him out there.   We have 2 great qb's and we're lucky and we have confidence in both and Mike is going to play this week.  Sure you get the looking over your shoulder possibility and the media would feed off that, but it HAS TO BE BETTER THAN WHAT HE SAID.!!!!!!

 

NOW, Reid looks like a liar.  This is his most obvious one, but Reid says he's my guy and we're happy with our receivers all the time.  It's BS and this is another example.  He's lying and people now know that.  Loses credibility and that's not good.

Kolb vs. Vick

My friend PK's take on the stunning QB turn of events:

The most annoying thing about Andy over the years was also one of the things that made him a great coach: his stubborn loyalty, his sense of never hitting the panic button.

It was maddening at times -- why did you call 62 pass plays and 13 runs in a game you never trailed by more than 4 pts, coach? I did what was best for the team, blah, blah, blah.

As maddening as it was, it sent a sense of calm amid the storm. That he knew what was going on, that he had the confidence in the system and the team, and that the players fed off that.

These moves this week are only the 2nd time in his 11-plus-year tenure when it appears he hit the panic button. The 1st, at halftime in Baltimore in '08, when he yanked Donovan from a 12-7 game, which we ended up losing 36-7. The panic button was immediately placed back inside its box as Donovan was quickly named the starter and the team went on a great run in which No 5 probably played the best football of his life, coming up just short of beating Ariz to go to the Super Bowl.

This, this week, this is soooooo out of character. No clue what to make of it.

Football Stands

My friend who is a Giants' fan asks:

DId the Colts fan have a legal obligation to give the helmet back to the Giants, or the NFL or anyone?  Do you waive your right to keep objects that come into the stands at a football game as part of yoru ticket purchase?

 

not sure if its just baseball culture that lets you keep objects that fly into the stands that isn't there in football....

i was fascinated by that standoff and wish there were more coverage of it and what ultimately happened.

I thought fans could keep footballs that were kicked in to the stands - remember that crazy guy that jumped out of his seat and down in to the concourse portal while actually catching the attempted FG? I htink it was a Monday nigher in Chicago.

judging by all the security that got involved, i presume the fan is not allowed to keep the helmet, even if the player does throw it into the stands (accidentally in the case of Jacobs). But i also assumed that, like baseball, when a fan returns a players bat that's flown into the stands, the equipment manager gives the fan a spare in return. 

i know teams keep spare helmets and assorted equipment on the sidelines in case stuff breaks. I would have assumed the Giants gave the fan another helmet, but can't say for sure that did happen since NBC didn't follow up. 

The other question i have is liability. all tickets have teh standard disclaimer and liability waiver about fan injury resulting from objects emanating from the field of play. Does this also apply to equipment thrown by a player into the stands that is not part of the normal course of the game? If the fan was injured, does he have a claim against Jacobs, the Giants, the NFL, Colts, and/or operators of Lucas Stadium?

Any other insights to this?

Congratulations Roy Halladay

The first Phillies 20 game winner since '82!

Shocking

Stunning news that Andy Reid has reversed course and named Mike Vick the Eagles' starting QB.

My guess is that it has less to do with Kolb's play (or Vick's though Vick's played well) but more to do with the poor play of the offensive line and the need to have a much more mobile QB to succeed.

Eagles Lions

Well, opening day could not have gone worse for Andy Reid and Kevin Kolb. 

Kolb looked terrible and failed to move the offense before getting hurt. Mike Vick came in and did move the offense. Worse, Kolb is out this week and won't get a chance to shine against probably the worst team the Eagles will play all season. If Vick has as good of a game as he is capable of, it further sets Kolb up for a big fall in a possible defeat against the Jaguars. It's entirely conceivable the Eagles will be facing a full blown QB controversy when former franchise QB Donovan McNabb comes to town on October 3rd. It will be very interesting to see what kind of reception he gets depending on how the next two weeks play out.

In any case, the Lions are improved and the Eagles caught a break in not having to face an injured Matthew Stafford and instead getting to defend Shaun Hill! This might have been a tougher game but early in the season and without their starting QB, the Eagles should win handily. The 6 point spread seems about right. If the Eagles do lose, look out...it's going to be a long season.

Eagles 27

Lions 13

NFL Tickets

As an Eagles' season ticket holder, i found this article about declining attendance at NFL games rather interesting. Notwithstanding the lousy economy that has had a measurable impact on attendance, this is going to be an ongoing problem/trend for the NFL.

Two things of particular note:

Tickets are expensive. As the article notes, the average price is $75, making a season ticket package worth $750...for one ticket.

While some teams, the article references New Orleans and Tampa as two teams that whose cheapest tickets are $35, it doesn't mention that these are obviously the worst tickets in the stadium and fans would be better off watching the game on TV than in person from the nose bleed section. It also doesn't account for all of the ancillary costs that accompany the $35 ticket....$25 parking, $8 beers, $6 hot dogs, etc. Economically, staying at home is a much better deal and that doesn't even count the time involved in traveling to and from the stadium which is at least a 5-6 hour time commitment (not counting tailgating) as compared to the 3 hours from start to finish of watching at home.

And lets face it. The NFL has a huge fan problem in the stadiums. The consensus among my season ticket holding friends is that 14 is the minimum age at which we would bring our children to a game. Because of the language, drunkeness, machismo, and generally boorish fan behavior - all of which is tolerated if not tacitly supported by the teams (actions that i have engaged in myself). It is definitely not a family friendly environment. Certainly not of the order of the other major professional sports, especially baseball. I had the occasion of attending the Eagles-Giants football game  and Yankees-Phillies world series game last year and the experiences could not have been more different. Even though it was a world series game, Citizens Bank Park felt more welcoming, more friendly, and more family oriented than the Linc and the rowdiness and aggressiveness that permeated the crowd.

The larger issue is that the NFL blackout rules are nonsensical. The less fans that go to a game, the less (i.e. NO) fans are able to watch the games on TV. The less games on TV, the less fans are likely to go to games. The NFL relies on approximately 70,000 fans to subsidize the ability of several hundred thousand fans to watch the game on TV. Admittedly, some of those 70,000 change each week, but a core group of 30-40,000 season ticket holders subsidize several magnitudes larger tv viewers. The bottomline is that it is an unsustainable business model.

NFL execs are quick to note that the league is the only one that still offers its games on free TV. That will soon come to an end. The not too distant future is a model in which TV viewers subscribe to watch their home team's games. The only question is how much such a product will cost. My guess it will still be cheaper to buy the games on TV than actually attend in person. The TV experience will still be better and a better deal, though not having a packed stadium in the background will take some getting used to. From the comfort of my couch, i'm sure i'll adjust.

Head Shot

More evidence that brain trauma can happen to any football player - not just the pros - and not just to older players but in this tragically sad case, to 21 year-olds who played since they were 9.

The money quote from the article.

"It's pretty hard to make a jump with one case," said Dr. James Moriarity, the University of Notre Dame's head physician, who oversees the athletic department's medical care. "But if it's true that that happened, it would kill the sport," he said, referring to an amateur player getting C.T.E. "As a parent, it's going to be hard to justify kids going out and doing that."

It is becoming increasingly clear that playing football is hazardous to one's health, especially their mental functioning - and is quickly becoming a life or death issue.

Last 5

Hamels' 25 inning scoreless streak ends but still... 3-0 and 1.77 ERA (or is it 0.77?) in last 5 five starts.

NFL at the apex?

Maybe it's just me and the lack of excitement over the first Eagles team in more than a decade that isn't a favorite to grab one of the top playoff seeds, but I can't help but think that this season- particularly the way this season has started - does not bode well for the NFL.

Indisputably, the league is the glamor professional sports league in the country. And yet, week 1 showed several long-term weaknesses in the game, including a couple that the league should have already addressed and suggest that the top leadership is getting sloppy (and this doesn't even include the pending lockout).

No, exhibit #1 is the Calvin Johnson touchdown catch, or non-touchdown catch. As numerous commentators pointed out, the rule is clear and the correct call was made in ruling it incomplete (and giving the Bears the game). the larger point is that most fans consider the Johnson's catch a touchdown. The fact that the NFL hasn't amended its rules to conform with fan common sense is telling.

But the bigger issue is the ever increasing violence of the game. The Eagles lost two starters for the season in the first week: Leonard Weaver to a horrific knee injury which Fox reported caused several players to become naseuous on the sideline while watching replays. And the owners want to go to an 18 game schedule ... so i can watch a full team of reserves play the games? Please.

No, the biggest issue is the concussion issue. The Eagles also lost two other starters to concussions: the starting QB Kevin Kolb and starting MLB Stewart Bradley.

Bradley's injury was particularly disturbing as he got up, staggered around and then collapsed on the field. Incredibly, no one in a position of authority saw this happen. The fact that both Bradley and Kolb were allowed to return to the game after suffering their brain injuries is inexplicable. Even more inexplicable is that apparently the Eagles followed all of the new concussion protocols put in place to show that the league took the issue of head injuries seriously. Perhaps the complaint shouldn't be against the Eagles (though how no one saw Bradley collapse is bizarre), but that the protocols are so lenient that a clearly punch drunk player can reenter the game. Clearly the league wants to give the appearance of getting tough on concussions without really having to do so. Note that both players hail from a team that came under intense scrutiny and criticism last year for their handling of Brian Westbrook's concussion and that this week's game was on national TV. Even Troy Aikman, the poster boy of concussions, was aghast that the Bradley was back in the game.

How long Bradley and Kolb will be out is the big question. And, indeed, is probably the biggest weakness of the league and their concussion crackdown (so called). I'm admittedly no medical expert, but how can Bradley play this week after his collapse on sunday? If he were a boxer, there wouldn't be a gaming commission in the country that would grant him a license a week after that spectacle. Kolb supposedly has a milder concussion and may play vs the Lions. Maybe. We'll see.

If the league is going to get serious about concussions then it needs to keep players with brain injuries out of games after they've been incurred (same for DeAngelo Hall in Washington, who appeared to be knocked out for a moment after a big hit vs. the Cowboys). What the league is obviously loathe to do is place players on the extended injury list with concussions and thereby draw more attention to the widespread incidences, long-term recuperation and lasting damage of such injuries. 

Forget the 18 game season and forget the players lost to ligament tears and separated shoulders. The greatest threat to the preeminent status of the NFL are concussions, the dirty secret they don't want the public (or players) to know about or be concerned with.

Packers

Interesting game tomorrow vs. the Packers.

What is with the NFL schedulers and their ongoing desire for the Eagles and Pack to play early in the season. Remember the opener the Eagles blew in Green Bay because Andy Reid cut all of his punt returners before the start of the season and then Greg Lewis (?) muffed a punt to lose the game?

Aaron Rodgers has become the poster child for succeeding a team legend and transitioning to a new QB era. Oh that the Eagles changes goes similarly smoothly and successfully.

On that point, while Rodgers is the new fan darling, it's worth mentioning that he's never won a playoff game and while he gets credit for keeping his team in the game vs. Arizona last year - he hasn't been killed - certainly not like McNabb would have been for overthrowing his wide open receiver on a play that would have won them the game. But I guess conventional wisdom being what it is, McNabb is the only inaccurate passer in the league.

Anyway, I don't have a good feeling for this game. I hope i'm proven wrong, but the Packers offense is good, the Eagles D untested (with all of the new players) and the offense has struggled.

A win would be huge against the team everyone is predicting to be the #1 seed when all is said and done this year. Still, can't see it happening.

41-14 Packers?

More Caveats

Oh yes, two other disclaimers. while i like our chances vs. the Niners and Bears, beware west coast travel and Chicago after Halloween.

The Niners would have been a super bowl contender with McNabb, why they didn't pursue him more vigorously we'll never know. But they still should be plenty good to beat us in a regular season home game. And can we really count on Jay Cutler to throw several back breaking INTs again?

PK says:

5-11 is a possibility, when you think about. Muff 1 of those early season games that should be a win - like Jax - and it could all spin the wrong way.

I don't think it's fair to say we split against Dallas, they beat us 3 times last year, twice very badly. As for the Skins, they had a better defense than ours the past 2 seasons or so. It might not show up statistically, we might be slightly better than them, but that's with our offense being so good. Their offense sucked open ass, had tons of 3 and outs, and yet their D kept fighting.

With a good offense, Skins D will be a Top 5 defense this year.

My Eagles Prediction

My projection:

I have them at 9-7 which surprised me that it was so many wins. 

I have them beating the Lions, Jags, 9ers, Bears, Texans, Vikings and all division teams at home. 

I have them losing to Packers, Falcons, Titans, Colts, all division teams on the road.

Of course, i could easily see the Cowboys also beating us at home which brings it down to 8-8.

The entire key to the season will be the Falcons, Titans, 49ers, Bears games. Those are all teams that in theory should be better than last year, some of which we barely beat last time.

A couple other thoughts. 1) the eagles really have benefitted from the skins sucking so bad the past couple years. that is an extra in-division win. before that it was the dave campo/chan gailey cowboys AND the spurrier skins that allowed the eagles to have their way in the division, which then becomes a huge competitive advantage. don't get me wrong, the eagles were good during that run, but their competition in the East was lousy.
i'm also reminded of something jeff pointed out a couple of years ago. You want your hard games to be on the road where you're more likely to lose anyway. Go 6-2 at home and .500 on the road and hello 10-6 and the playoffs (well, unless your the Patriots).

Anyway, it sucks that the Packers and Colts are home games though maybe that is tempered by getting Detroit on the road.
the other wildcard is have no sense of how good either the Giants or Skins will be this year. the skins will likely be improved but by how much. And i have no idea what the Giants are capable or not capable of this year. The Cowboys should win the division with all the uncertainty among their rivals.

Of course, as we all well know, the nfl season is an incredibly long slog and teams that appear down and out even late in the season - like the Eagles did after they benched McNabb and tied the Bungles - can still marshal a push and make the playoffs - where now anything has become possible. You literally just have to be in it to win it.

Still, the Eagles margin for error isn't like in years past when we debated the prospects of 13-3, 13-4 or 11-5.

A 9-7 projection can quickly become 7-9... or worse.

Eagles Predictions 2010, Part 2

Here's my brother's take on the season:

I found some interesting stuff – The Giants and Eagles have murderous schedule at end.  If Andy goes .500 over last 8 weeks we'll win division.  I have eagles starting something like 6-1.

The opener as the only loser.  I've said this before – the opener is HUGE this year.  Sets the tone.  Very good chance of Donovan coming to town with us undefeated (Jags/Lions after the Pack).

We end with cowboys, Giants end at Washington.  If I'm close on my predictions than the last week should be awesome.  I had Cowboys/Skins winning those games – so going into those I'd be at 9-6 eagles, 9-6 giants, 9-6 cowboys, 7-8 redskins.  Off by a game before then and we're all around 8-7.

Eagles middle schedule is interesting with the Niners/Falcons/Bears as big swing games – are those teams really going to better –on paper they are – actually significantly better.  I have us sweeping them.  Then getting it handed to us down the stretch (colts/Vikings/at giants/at redskins cowboys twice).

If we lose the close games – more likely with a new, first-time starting QB – then we're looking at 7-9, maybe even 6-10 considering the schedule.  If the D returns to prominence we could get to 10-6.  With no easy wins for anyone in the East that could take the division.

Cowboys             10-6

Eagles                 9-7  -  I put them second as I think they have the better chance at 9-7 (more confidence with them being 9-7 then Giants)

Giants                  9-7

Redskins              8-8

Eagles Predictions 2010

My brother and friend Pk have usually been pretty accurate in predicting the Eagles' final regular season record. Of course, it hasn't often unfolded the way we envisioned, but the final numbers have been remarkably close to our preseason calls.

This year is a little different. First, the Eagles aren't the automatic playoff team they have been for the past ten years - or more accurately, since Donovan McNabb's been the starter. There's been a lot changes besides trading the franchise QB. Brian Westbrook's departure has garnered surprisingly little attention. The defense, which collapsed in the last two Dallas games - has been overhauled with several new players and some familiar faces returning (Bradley).

Anyway, the next couple of entries are our predictions for the Eagles season. There surprisingly consistent in their outlook, which is essentially something between a 7-9 to 9-7 season. Whether that will be good enough for a wild card spot remains to be seen.

From my friend, PK:

I've got the Eagles winning between 6 and 8 games. And I'm getting them out to a 3-1 start. The keys to the season may well be Games 5, 6 and 7: on the road in SF and Atl at home and Titans on the road. I've got them losing all 3, as we'll be on the road out west (we always lose those games, think Raiders!) and Ryan is a good-to-great QB, and our D now gets killed by those types of QBs.

Then we lose 2 in a row, at home against Colts and on road in DC. I'm giving us a split against NYG and losing both to Dallas. I've got us losing 4 straight at the end of the season, to finish 6-10.

But, we could go 7-9 if we beat SF or Atl or Titans, or 8-8 if we take 2 of the 3. 

Very hard to see us winning 9 games this season, unless our defense is dramatically improved from last year's ridiculously average group.

Those final 8 games, there's not a single layup in the mix. Even the Texans (good-to-great QB) at home is not a lock.

We could easily go 2-6 in the 2nd half of the season. 

Playing the Percentages = 92 x 2

My friend PK looks at the Phils' few weeks to the finish line: 

2 things of note:

* we play 15 of our remaining 21 on the road. If we win at our current win %'s at home and road, we finish with almost 93 wins. Atl plays 13 of remaining 22 at home, and if they win out based on current win %'s at home/road, they win just about 93 games. Damn.

* Charlie is using the Thursday off day to set the pitching lineups perfectly!!! There's 9 games between now and the 9/21 start of the Braves series. Halladay is starting this Fri nigh, and Oswaltshould/could pitch Saturday (he'll have 4 rest days since his Monnight pitching). Then next 2 are Blanton-Kendrick/rookie, then Cole pitches, followed by the Roys games 6 and 7 of this 9-game stretch.Then Blanton-Kendrick/rookie pitch games 8 and 9. Then Hamels starts game 1 of Braves series at home, followed by the Roys in games 2, 3.

Key Stat

Perhaps the KEY stat as far as the Phils' playoff drive is concerned.

Per Phil Sheridan:

The Phillies have 26 regular-season games remaining to overtake the Braves. Thanks to Amaro, 15 or 16 of them will be started by Halladay, Roy Oswalt, or Cole Hamels.