162 game madness

My friend PK writes:

Crazy fact: Yankees were 1 strike away from beating the Rays in bottom 9; Sox were 1 strike away from beating the Orioles in bottom 9. Both lost. Wow.
And the Johnson homer in the 9th to tie, and the Longoria homer to win, wouldn't have been homers in almost any other park.

3.5 the Magic Number

WaPo baseball writer Dave Shenin puts the Phillies' post-season magic number at 3.5. As in, if the Phillies can score 3.5 wins/game then they should win the Series, based on the ERA of their pitching staff and their 2011 record of 94-68 when going above that mark.

Stormy Selig

What i do know, is that MLB (Bud Selig) doesn't have the balls to call the Sox-Orioles game in the 7th to give Boston the wildcard. Could be a looong night in Baltimore if the weather doesn't change.

162?

are we rooting for Phils to beat Braves and give Cardinals wildcard or lose and force 1 game playoff?

better to have Cardinals in or exhaust both teams.

Sportstravaganza

When the Phillies were in the World Series in in 2008 and 2009, my friends and I were able to fulfill a rare double header - an Eagles game and World Series game all in the same glorious day.

So took a look at this fall's schedules to see if we could have a repeat of a sportstravaganza in South Philly and, unfortunately, the only possible Phillies home playoff game that coincides with an Eagles home game is this Sunday, which is a lock.

The Phillies will be hosting game 2 of the NLDS and the Eagles play the Niners.

The Eagles next two games after that are road games and then they have a bye. Their next home game is vs. Dallas at the end of October, by which time the World Series is over.

Given the Eagles' schedule oddity - two away games to open the season, two home games (and the latest home opener since 1971), followed by two more away games and then a bye, I have to wonder if the NFL didn't purposely schedule the Eagles' games so that there would NOT be baseball and football games on the same day as much as possible. 

'64 Phillies

The Red Sox looming wild card collapse has writers hearkening back to the 1964 Phillies. 

What about the 2007 Mets?

ATL

How the hell did we blow that game last night, with a 10 point lead heading into the 4th Q?

I don't have a problem with Reid going for it on 4th and 4 with 1:45 to play from the Atlanta 22 - and not kicking the field goal, but why the hell did he call a timeout?!?!?

I know it's a big play - that you need to get the 1st and you've got your backup QB in and need to make sure everyone is on the same page. But don't you kind of have to plan for if you don't make it.

If Reid hadn't called timeout, the Eagles would have gotten the ball back on the Atlanta 45 with approximately 45 seconds to play and not the 5 seconds they did have. 45 seconds is plenty of time to score when you are already across midfield.

Maclin was having a great game right up until he dropped that 4th down pass. And what were they thinking on 3rd down? 3rd and 3 from the Atlanta 21. It's two down territory and, again, you've got your backup QB in. Why not run the ball on 3rd down? You can't get 1.5 yards/carry on 3rd and then 4th down?

Ugh.

What Might Have Been?

This lede from an article yesterday really caught my eye. For all of the Phillies success the past couple years - and how dominant they've recently become (and how spoiled we've gotten as fans), it really is kind of amazing how tenuous their start to this run was. The 7 back with 17 to play, etc. I know they got their doors blown off in that LDS to the Rockies, but that experience i think did help them the following year. How might things be ultimately different had the Mets not collapsed 4 years ago. (both for the Phillies and the Mets)

Four years ago this morning, the Phillies were 5 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with 15 to play. Three years ago today, they were tied with the Brewers atop the wild-card standings with 12 games to play. When you consider that history, what they accomplished yesterday at Minute Maid Park was nothing short of remarkable: not the fact that they clinched a fifth consecutive postseason berth with a 1-0 win over the Astros, but the fact that they did so with little more than a nod of acknowledgment.

Schmidt and Howard

So flipping over to the Phillies Brewers game yesterday, they posted a stat when Howard was up saying that Howard's 6 straight seasons of 30+ homers and 100+ RBIs is a franchise record.

I thought Schmidt had to have had more consecutive seasons than 6 but that maybe the '82 strike screwed up his streak.

It turns out that Schmidt hit 35 homers in 82, but only 87 RBIs. In fact, it is the RBIs that stopped him several years, though he just missed 100:

1975 - 38, 95

1981- 31, 91

1982 - 35, 87

1985 - 33, 93

But the year that really jumped out at me was 1978. Schmidt hit only 21 HRs and 78 RBIs. Baseball-reference says he played in 145 games, so it wasn't a major injury, but I can't recall - being only 11 at the time - why Schmidt slumped so badly that year. It's a huge anomaly, particularly homer-wise, for a guy who averaged 37/107 over the course of his career.

Mom Says

An email from my Mom. Sorry for the belated posting.

Hi all, Phillies 9, Atlanta 0

I gave EVERYONE Cliff Lee shirts for Christmas - how did I know he would be so great?? 6th shutout this year, ERA  .037

Wear those shirts with pride!!

Another view

From my favorite newspaperman.

I haven't gone into a season this unprepared, this not knowing since the Bobby Hoying/Doug Pederson era. I just missed the entire "offseason" because it only lasted about 8 days and it was at the height of my debt-ceiling insanity. I'm still very, very confused by people calling us a "dream team", because we just signed a few defensive guys I'd never heard of -- yes, I get that he's supposed to be the best CB in football, but can 1 corner really be that good? Does that, and adding a former Pro Bowl CB, make you a dream team? I don't know. 
We won 11 games last year and the division with a defense that could be best described as "average" -- but more aptly described as "putrid" whenever we faced good QBs. If these defensive upgrades make us competitive against good to great QBs, then 12-4 or 13-3 seems likely.

However, like last season, that all hinges entirely on the man under center. If he suffers injuries or slides back to his 2005 version of himself, then we're a 9-7 team.

Another prediction

My brother's take on the season.

Okay - the eagles need to start 2-1. 2 road games and the giants to start. We go 2-1 then follow with niners in philly and at DC and buffalo. If we continue our great play against bad qb's we should be 5-1!!!! Remains to be seen (obviously) with castillo still in charge, but my bet is yes based on personnel. That's why 2-1 is big. Because we are off and running. We can rebound from 1-2 and get back to 4-2 (assuming no slip up against inferior team). I think we get 2-1 and 5-1 with back to back HOME prime time games against dallas/bears.

We get halfway home at 6-2.

2nd half games - 3 division games (only 1 at home), dolphins, jets, pats, cards, seahawks. 5-3 (1 division loss that gets us probably 4-2 in division). 

That gets me to 11-5. I think that's it.

Obviously injuries - ous and theirs - will have huge impact. But I think 12-4 is possoble as is 10-6 and if we blow a game - 9-7. I think 11-5 gets us a bye. Because our losses will be against pats/jets. So we have 3 conf losses and I think that'll get us 11-5 tiebreaker over saints.

The 2 seed gets the saints. The 1 seed gets a wild card team or west winner. BIG difference between 1 and 2 seed. I see 3 dominant teams - pack/eagles/saints.

11-5.

Predictions?

So, what's your verdict on the Eagles season?

10-6 seems like the safest bet as far as being + or -1 on the total number of victories. Explosive offensive playmakers, but an untested O-line, a sterling secondary but major questions at LB - and that doesn't even account for whether Juan Castillo will be a competent defensive coordinator.

Candidate Fraud?

Florida's Republican leaders have become notorious for being fixated on "voter fraud" and thus requiring voters provide photo id and other such strategies that really serve to disenfranchise poor and minority citizens.

Now comes news, via the WaPo's style page of all places, that a prominent former Florida Republican senator Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV has appeared on the ballot numerous times under the nickname "Connie Mack." Interesting that Florida doesn't require candidates to be listed on the ballot under their legal names and allows them to be identified by the name of their choosing. All while demanding that the very citizens who will vote for these candidates jump through more hoops to prove their identity than the office holders themselves.

The Cuts are In

Putting aside the on the field impact of the Eagles personnel moves (i.e., cuts) to arrive at their 53 man roster, it's interesting to evaluate the talent evaluation.

Safety Marlin Jackson was brought in to sure up the secondary last year and replace the gaping hole left by Brian Dawkins. Jackson got hurt, never played last year (leading to the emergence of rookie Nate Allen) and now will never play for the Eagles.

Daniel Te'O-Nesheim looks like a 2010 3rd round pick bust.

Though less of a stretch as a fifth rounder, the Eagles didn't hit on Tupuo either.

2008 4th round pick Mike McGlynn- bust.

5th round pick Cornelius Ingram was released earlier.

But the biggest surprise bust has to be touted free agent acquisition Ryan Harris who was brought in to start at RT and protect Mike Vick's blindside. Did Harris play even one preseason game before succumbing to back spams? In any case, he underwent back surgery, got an injury settlement from the Eagles and never played a real game for the team.

Cut downs

I've always had a strange fixation on former U. Miami star and now former Patriot safety Brandon Merriweather. I've long suspected that the Eagles were targeting Merriweather that year to become Brian Dawkins' heir apparent, but then the Pats took him just a couple slots earlier in the first round of the 2007 draft, prompting the Eagles to trade that 1st round pick to the Cowboys, drafting K. Kolb, and kick starting several years of QB drama and the Donovan McNabb departure watch.

My fixation with Merriweather continues and the situation is still odd. The Pats parted ways with Merriweather yesterday, despite having played in the last two Pro Bowls. Reading the Boston papers, it's not entirely clear why he was released - with no real comment on the quality of his play - and the Globe article suggests that recent turnover in the Pats secondary and lack of veterans made it even more likely that Merriweather would have (should have?) been kept.

Ultimately, the Pats and Merriweather found themselves in the exact same position as the Eagles and DB Joselio Hanson, two players that weren't going to make the team but couldn't be traded because other teams knew that they could get them for nothing when they were released.

Knowing the weird Philly-Boston, Reid-Belichek relationship, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pats snap up Hanson and, admittedly less likely, the Eagles sign Merriweather.