The Two Pointer

An article on the fascinating considerations of the 2-point conversion (and a picture of Andy Reid accompanying the article, to boot).

Some interesting stats from the NY Times:

During the 2009 regular season, 64.8 percent of games were within 8 points during the fourth quarter, the time when most coaches say they start pondering the 2-pointer (the Jets' Rex Ryan said he would never consider it before the final drive of the third quarter).

Despite closer games that would seem to demand it, coaches are becoming no more comfortable going for 2. According to Football Outsiders, a Web site devoted to statistical analysis of the N.F.L., teams attempted 53 2-point conversions in the 2009 regular season (not counting botched extra-point kicks that turned into 2-point attempts). That's the third-fewest attempts in the last dozen years, and well below the 98 attempts in 1998.

This season, teams converted 45.3 percent of attempts, well down from the 60 percent rate in 2006, when coaches used the 2-point sparingly, only 35 times, and the third-lowest conversion rate since 2000.

Still, conversion rates hovered at or above 50 percent just three years ago, only to drop in the past two seasons.

One problem: coaches cannot seem to decide if passing or running is a better option for those 2 yards. According to Football Outsiders, 73.6 percent of 2-point tries this season were by pass, even though their success rate was only 41 percent. The run was successful 57.1 percent of the time. Since 1998, the pass has been used more than the run, even though its conversion rate has been higher than running just once, in 2002. 

Amazing that 74% of attempted conversions - for 2 yards no less - were passes?! Whose calling all of the plays...Andy Reid! Whatever happened to 3 yards and a cloud of dust. Forget about deciding whether to go for it or not as being the coaches' biggest decision. The biggest choice - and the most obvious - is to call a running play. D'uh.

The interesting thing is that teams should be going it for it more often than they do. I wonder if the 2-pt. conversion will evolve like the 3 pt. shot in basketball where it has become accepted that the reward of the extra point outweighs the risk of the lower percentage scoring opportunity.