No Nova D-I Football

As a Villanova grad, the pending decision by the Board of Trustees as to whether to step up and become a member of the Big East's Division I football conference is a big deal to me. It would be a big mistake for Villanova to make that move.

The Inqy has an article that covers several of the main concerns of such a move. Unfortunately, most get short shrift or just a cursory mention without further exploration. The main thrust of the article is how much it will cost Villanova to compete in D-I as opposed to D-IAA (I know it's called the football championship subdivision, but i'm old school when it comes to college football. Call it whatever "championship" or subdivision you want, it's still Double A football).

The school already has paid out over $4 million a year lately to play I-AA football. What's the price tag for I-A?

The expectation is that if Villanova moves up, it will cost a cumulative $5 million during the three years (2011-13) before the school starts collecting Big East revenues. After that, one working estimate floating around is that Villanova would have to spend about $1 million more than it has been paying for the lower level, even with their share of Big East revenues. Since the Big East's TV deal is still to be negotiated, that figure isn't definitive. There is no definitive number.

First, these numbers are (purposely?) confusing. Villanova currently spends $4 million a year in I-AA. They will only be spending $1.6 million per year in the first three years in the Big East ("it will cost a cumulative $5 million during the three years before the school starts collecting Big East revenues." Does the reporter mean to say that it will be an extra $5 million above and beyond the current $4 million annually? Perhaps, but that's not how it's written. As presented, moving to the Big East is a savings of more than $2 million annually just on expenses alone (not counting additional revenue).

Later, comes this

After that, one working estimate floating around is that Villanova would have to spend about $1 million more than it has been paying for the lower level, even with their share of Big East revenues.

This suggests that net Big East conference revenue, it will still cost $1 million more (or put into perspective, an additional 25% (based on the current $4 million annual expenditure) to play big-time Big East football.

Regarding attendance

A consulting firm hired by Villanova also has looked at potential attendance. Villanova draws 7,000 or 8,000 for a strong I-AA team. Can the Wildcats double or almost triple that in the Big East playing at PPL? Surveys have been done working with different price points. The results, according to one Villanova source, were "pretty positive . . . there is a substantive demand for this product." By that, the source said, there is probably "sufficient interest among our core constituents" to remove attendance as an area of concern.

I don't believe these numbers for a second. Maybe Villanova could double attendance - to 14,000. But triple it? I think that is a huge stretch. More importantly, at best that would place Villanova attendance at 24,000 per game. But it is focusing on the wrong benchmark. The 24,000 may be very impressive from the current baseline but 24,000 pales in comparison to the attendance of established D-I schools. I'm not even talking about the 100,000 that weekly attend Michigan games, but even the 35-40,000 that watch Syracuse play. In short, 24,000 is a pittance in D-I, and that is Villanova's best case scenario. This is the key point. Notwithstanding the big Philadelphia TV market (which they share with Temple in football), there simply aren't the fans or desire to fully support Villanova D-I football on the scale necessary to compete, much less succeed, against the likes of Pitt, WVa, Tennesse, Florida St. et. al. The fact of the matter is that D-I football is played by large state schools with lots of resources, alumni and infrastructure (Notre Dame the notable exception). Add in that Philadelphia is clearly a pro football town, and it is hard to see how Villanova football can hope to thrive in this environment.

And then, of course, there is the impact on the real issue - Villanova basketball. Or as the university refers to it, the school's meal ticket. Will D-I football drain resources, attention and tarnish (presuming Villanova gridironers' perform middlingly on the field) the basketball team's reputation.

I remember when Villanova first disbanded football and then restarted it. Andy Talley has succeeded beyond anyone's dreams. But let's not mistake success at the I-AA level into thinking that it will translate to D-I. Villanova simply doesn't have the resources or support to sustain such a program. They are fine just where they are, and where they belong.