Monday, October 10, 2011

Hitting Beats Pitching?

My friend's analysis of the Phillies' playoff flame out:


I'm sure there's a way to break it down to figure out how Howard hits
against aces. It'd be complicated, but you can find situational
hitting stats for any batter against any pitcher, so you'd then have
to add those up. My presumption is that the entire team feasts on bad
teams, bad pitching.
Let's face it, the reality is that great pitching and average hitting
is The Worst profile for playoff runs. We are the Braves now. Those
Braves teams won 100+ every season because they had the best 4 and 5
pitchers in the game. Well, those guys are bullpen mates in the
post-season.
Denny Neagle doesn't mean jack in the playoffs. Yet those Braves teams
never had real bats. Just Chipper and some OK guys like Javvy Lopez.
Well, look deep at that Phillies lineup. Polly went from an All Star
to an also ran. Utley is a helluva ballplayer but he's never gonna hit
30 homers again. Rollins is a 6-hole hitter masquerading as a lead-off
hitter.
Look at the last 10 seasons and see how rare it is that great pitching
- teams with 3 or 4 All Star-caliber arms - win the Series. The 2010
SFG are the only example, depending on how you grade the '01 D'backs
(2 Hall of Fame arms and then junk, but great offense).
Once you get to the playoffs everyone - everyone - has 2 pitchers who
can pitch effectively. What wins is great hitting matched up with good
pitching. Like the '08 Phillies and '09 Yankees and '07/'04 BoSox.
Otherwise, you're just the Braves.

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