A Question and an Impossibility

Here's an interesting question that no one from the NFL or Broncos wants to talk about. How much and in which direction would the line move if the Gary Kubiak announced that Brock Osweiler was going to start tomorrow's Super Bowl instead of Peyton Manning? Currently the line is -5.5 for the Panthers. My guess is that it would move in the Broncos favor---at least a half point and maybe even a full point to -4.5. 

This all was prompted by the prop bet i heard about that was the over/under of the number of players who threw passes in the big game. The line is 2.5 passers and the over is +175. Now maybe this is all about whether Emmanuel Sanders or Mike Tolbert toss a pass on some trick play. But I was thinking of whether Osweiler would come in for a struggling Manning.

Here's the thing. Manning isn't coming out of tomorrow's game, no matter how dreadful he is. I fully understand it. On the biggest stage and in what could be the last game of his first ballot Hall of Fame career, Kubiak is going to stick with Manning no matter what. Even if that "what" is a struggling offense with no first downs, and 3 INTs before halftime. Unfortunately - and let's face it - that scenario is a definite possibility given Manning's history in the playoffs and especially in the Super Bowl.

All of which makes me think that while I think the Panthers will win, they could win very big. There may come a time during the game where the Broncos and Manning are struggling but the game is still within reach. I don't expect to see Osweiler even if it makes sense. Kubiak will continue to throw Manning out there and for that I think the game could get out of reach shortly afterward.

Josh Norman should take away the deep ball and with Manning's weak arm strength these days, the Panthers' elite set of LBs seem uniquely suited to stopping his short and intermediate throws.

Again, writing this gives me no pleasure. But it is the reality as Manning did not have a good year and is at the very tail end of his career. The Broncos D has carried this team most of the season (though Osweiler was 5-2 as the starter) and especially in the playoffs. Indeed, Manning only threw for 17 completions and 176 yards vs. the Patriots in the AFC Championship.

But it's sad to realize that for as great Manning has been, him not playing and a second round pick out of ASU named Brock Osweiler may give the Broncos a better chance of winning the pro championship.