Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Chesapeake Primary

A couple of thoughts on the just concluded primaries in DC, Virginia, and Maryland.

* Interestingly, my family got a lot of robo calls this week from the various candidates (because of their different political affiliations I heard about them all). What was most interesting is that all the candidates at some point made a call using a recorded message of themselves....except for Barack Obama. Obama's calls were made by local supporters such as his wife (7:30 pm tonight) and the sheriff of Montgomery County. All the others - McCain, Clinton, Huckabee - made the personal appeal call, but not the Senator from Illinois. Why that is my professional politico friends can explain. Does Obama want to be seen as remaining above the fray? Does he not want to associate himself with the most basic of political campaigning - asking for someone's vote? Does he want to keep his rhetorical gifts exclusive to his superb speech making? Other?

* Will someone please do an expose on the Democratic superdelegates? (that means you PK). I can vaguely call the creation of the superdelegates as a counterweight to opening up the primaries to proportional voting. but when exactly was that? And the fact that while superdelegates make up "only one-fifth" of all delegates obscures the more salient fact that superdelegates are 40% of the necessary 2,000 delegates needed for a candidate to secure the nomination. So while Dems can feel good about their proportional representation primary (as opposed to the winner take all general electoral college rules), the party leaders clearly have their thumb on the scale of the nomination process...a fact that will hopefully get more play in the coming weeks. and aside from being a governor or member of Congress, how does one become a "superdelegate?"

* PA Governor Ed Rendell is getting skewered today for speaking the truth about Obama's prospects in the Keystone State. On a riff akin to the myriad articles referencing the "Bradley Effect," Easy Ed had the audacity to explain the reality in PA thusly, ""You've got conservative whites here, and I think there are some whites who are probably not ready to vote for an African-American candidate."

Carville can call the middle of the state "Alabama." MSNBC can suggest Chelsea Clinton is a prostitute (woe to the reporter who would make the "racist" mistake of using the word "pimp" within three paragraphs of the name "Obama." Misogyny is apparently the last remaining acceptable prejudice in American journalism). Any number of commentators can (and have) explained the rationale of the Bradley Effect but if a successful pol like EZ Ed lays it out in such stark terms they (or their state) is branded as racist.

* Speaking of misogyny. I had some fascinating discussions with people about the two Democratic candidates. The Hillary hatred is especially astounding. "She's cold, she's manipulative, she's phony," etc. these right wingers (and some left leaners say.) But it is truly bizarre when these same people lambaste her for remaining married to her husband while "he was getting blow jobs in the Oval Office by 18 year-olds." Under this line of thinking, she's not the victim but the witting perp because she didn't leave him because of her ultimate presidential ambitions. Family values be damned! (and you thought Dems had wacky conspiracy theories).

* You heard it here first. The primary schedule is to Clinton's benefit over the next three weeks. She's not expected to win anything till the OH, PA, TX primaries and Obama is clearly the front runner now. In theory, he'll undergo a more careful media examination. Those stories won't have a significant effect on the Buckeye-Nittany Lion primary results but her wins there will then fuel another round of a Hillary rebound and Obama swoon under the national media glare. Onward to Denver!

Of course, if this were a usual year the media would carefully scrutinize the new front runner. But this isn't a normal year so don't expect Obama to get the typical vetting because of white guilt in the press and a reluctance to do a hard hitting piece that gets them branded as bigots.

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