Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Potomac or Chesapeake?

Can we get a ruling on what exactly yesterday's DC, MD, VA primary was? The Chesapeake Primary or the Potomac Primary?

Obama continued his "domination of Hillary," which was actually a sentence appearing in a recent WaPo lede. I'm looking forward to the future stories about how "Obama has taken Hillary from behind. or "laid her out and had his way with her." Maybe some MSM reporter can refer to Obama as a "young buck."

In any case, the press still can bring themselves to directly address the striking race gap that continues to give Obama his margins of victory. The narrative now is that he is widening his lead in most demographic groups - especially among white voters.

However, a look at the numbers reveals a different story. The MD and VA results reveal a gender gap among white women, who went for Clinton 54-45 in Virginia and 56-38 in Maryland. In Maryland white men were evenly split though in Virginia white men were for Obama 56-42. Thus the notion of "more whites" trending toward Obama is based nearly exclusively on white men. More generally, the conventional wisdom of men and women turning to Obama is practically all the result of Obama's staggering differential among blacks - who supported him with 89% of the vote in Virginia and 84% in Maryland. And because, obviously, those numbers include black men and women, which are then sliced the other way for generic men and women totals, it means that Obama's coalition is still predicated almost exclusively of african-american voters. The question is whether these voters that make up a significant portion of Democratic voters (and a flat out majority in states like South Carolina) will be enough of a critical mass to replicate Obama's support in a general election where this demographic subgroup will less of a percentage among the electorate as a whole.

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