Black and White

A 5 minute major for boarding? A full 2 minute 5-3 advantage? A questionable call around the crease?

such were the terrible calls the Flyers managed to overcome in last night's 3-2 Game 3 win. They're the calls the Flyers expected the Capitals to get in their Game 7 to ensure the league got the Crosby-Ovechkin young gun marquee matchup it so wanted. So it does happen and can sometimes be expected. Alas, that game was fairly called. Not so last night. Sam Donnellon thinks it could be a conspiracy - of Candians taking care of their own. We'll see how the rest of the series goes, but last night was so bad it would have made David Stern proud.

TO Saga Continues

The announcement that the TO-Eagles affair was finally over earlier this year when an arbitrator ruled that Terrell Owens needed to pay back nearly $800,000 in bonus money was a bit premature. It seems that TO hasn’t paid the money back yet, and the Eagles have now filed suit to get it. Given the Eagles sloppy bookkeeping (see Westbrook, Brian $3 million overpayment), we presume Lurie and Banner checked more than twice with the accounting and receiving departments to see if TO’s check ever arrived.

 

When will the TO-Eagles relationship ever end? It’s like a bad marriage/divorce.

 

Villanova reference of the week

And it’s connected to the draft and the Pride of the Blue Hens (as well as famed Eagles #7).

 

From Peter King, “Ron Jaworski had the best analysis of the pre-show. It was about Joe Flacco, and about how the complex zone blitz of Villanova really bothered him. I mean, when a guy gives you a tidbit from Delaware-Villanova, you've got to respect that.”

More Draft Thoughts

Here’s what I sent a friend who asked my opinion about the Eagles just concluded draft.

 

 

I’m somewhat ambivalent about the draft. I am not in the gnashing of teeth camp that cannot believe the eagles traded the #19 pick. Getting a 2, 4 and a #1 next year is a really good deal, especially for a draft that supposedly had a lot of 2^nd and 3^rd round talent.

 

The eagles wanted to move up to pick Branden Albert, but were outbid by the Chiefs for that pick.

 

Honestly, at #19 there was no one who was going to be the difference maker that everyone was clamoring for. The most obvious pick would have been OL Jeff Otah. But does he really get everyone excited? No. (neither for that matter would have Branden Albert had the Eagles been able to trade up and select him.)

 

I heard some complaining that the Eagles should have gotten Rashard Mendenhall (RB, Illinois) (taken by Pittsburgh in the 20s). Well, but I doubt he would have had a huge impact given how “hard” the Eagles offense is to pick up for rookie skill players.

 

Really, if you wanted a true impact player for 2008, the eagles would have had to move up into the top 10.

 

Having said that, I’m slightly disappointed by the Desean Jackson choice. I can’t believe our first pick was for a guy whose primary job will be punt and kick returner. He’s really fast, but really small. Right now he’s 169 lbs. but hopes to be up to 180 lbs. by training camp  The Jeremy Bloom debacle continues to reverberate two years after we drafted him and nearly one year after cutting him loose with no Plan B for the return game. – to the point where we have to expend a second round pick for a returner who the team hopes can play some WR.

 

I had the same thought about the similarities in size and speed to the great Todd Pinkston . On the other hand, Carolina’s Steve Smith is 5’ 11” 180 lbs so maybe there’s some hope. And he is faster than Pinkston ever was (and 2-3 inches shorter). And Kevin Curtis is only 6 foot, 186 pounds (for what that’s worth).

 

My biggest complaint is that 3^rd rounder they used on the McNeese St. defensive end. Why not take another WR there? Early Doucet was available. That way either one Jackson or the other WR pick could pan out.(weirdly, I though the Skins two WR picks would have been great Eagles picks). Do we really need another small school undersized speed rushing D-End more than a WR? Then again Rich Hoffman makes some interesting observations today about the Giants’ ability to bring front 4 pressure in the super bowl and the Eagles perhaps making a conscious decision to load up the d-line: Cole, Patterson, Bunkley, Thomas, Abiamiri, Clemons, etc.

 

And don’t discount getting Lorenzo Booker. That’s now an experienced pass catching RB the Eagles got for a fourth rounder. Should contribute WAY MORE this season than any fourth round back they could have hoped to draft.

 

They also have this Lito situation still out there. The media in Philly (or maybe just WIP) are either in a panic or doom and gloom about the Eagles inability to trade him. Lots of stuff can still happen. Jason Taylor is being shopped, as is Jeremy Shockey (not saying we’d trade for either one of those guys, only that teams are still trying to trade big names/starters). And then of course are the Boldin, Williams, and Chad Johnson rumors that just won’t die.

 

This draft looks very different if the Eagles eventually land Anquan Boldin for Lito and the Panthers #1 pick next year.

 

I’m also trying to read between all the lines in some of these articles, Reid comments…is it possible that the Eagles extend Lito and Sheldon Brown with new deals to bring them somewhat closer to Samuels’ contract and keep everyone happy and on the team?

PK: Desean the Next Stinkston?

My friend PK writes:

well, for whatever it's worth, put me in the largely unsatisfied camp from this year's draft.

Feel like every year, for the past few years, we've gone into the draft thinking we're just a couple playmakers away from being a Super Bowl-contending/winning team, and each year we come out of the draft with Banner and Reid making selections that will have little impact on the next season but are intended to be potentially big impact several years down the road.

Just like last year, when we drafted a guy who might be ready to be an NFL starting QB in 2010, we've selected a bunch of guys who might be starters in 2010. And, wow, what a stunning surprise -- we drafted another tallish, incredibly skinny wide receiver who looks ready to get pushed around by bigger, stronger corners. Desean Jackson -- 6-0, 178 lbs -- come on down, you're the next contestant on the Challenge to See Who Can Become the Next Todd Pinkston!

A Booker

Why is the Philadelphia media discounting the acquisition of Lorenzo Booker? He would appear to be a solid complement to Brian Westbrook, a running back with pro experience that the Eagles got for the cost of one fourth round pick.

 

Seriously, in any true evaluation of the Eagles’ 2008 draft, both immediately and four years hence, you have to include Booker’s performance in the analysis.

 

And what I’m seeing is encouraging. While he technically “played” in two games midway through the season (vs. Buffalo and, ironically, the Eagles) it wasn’t till the last five games of Miami’s miserable season that he actually carried the ball. Based on those five games, Booker averaged 4.5 yards/carry. More impressively, in those same five games he caught 28 passes (coincidentally, the same number of carries he had) for an average of 5.6 receptions/game…for a situational player on a lousy team!

 

For comparison purposes, the great Brian Westbrook averaged 4.8 yards/carry and 6 receptions/game in 2007. Yes, B. Westbrook played in ten more games than Booker but #36 also played on a much better team than the lowly Dolphins. And at 5’ 10”, 191 lbs, Booker is the same height (if you believe both players’ figures) and only ten lbs. lighter than Westbrook.

 

Perhaps most importantly, having gotten his first NFL year under his belt, Booker can be expected to contribute more this year than a rookie getting acclimated to the league.

 

All in all, a very good pickup. A pity the Eagles aren’t getting more credit it for it.

The Q Rating

I love the fact that new Eagle Trevor Laws wanted a cheesesteak upon his arrival in Philadelphia yesterday. But I really love this guy Quinton Demps. I love his comments in a post-draft conference call, and I love the fact that he pointed out he picked off Kevin Kolb twice back in college. I also love that he seems to be aware that Donovan McNabb wanted the Eagles to get “playmakers” in the off-season and thinks that he fits the bill. Hell, if he is half as good as he thinks he is, or is as good as his mouth, maybe the Eagles did land their successor to Hall of Famer Brian Dawkins.

 

"I am a playmaker. If the Eagles wanted a playmaker, they got one as a steal in this draft. I am not a Pro Bowl player, I'm a Super Bowl player. I am ready to go. I am fired up."

 

(Note, transpose those last two sentences and you essentially have Barack Obama’s catch phrase, “Fired Up! Ready to Go.”)

5 Alive

Don't despair McNabb-lovers. Best comment on the Philly.com boards. "There was no one at #19 that was going to help #5 immediately."

 

In other words, the eagles can get the same guys in the second round - WR, DB - that they would have had to take at #19. Plus they got a whole bunch of other picks.

 

I like the deal/move.

Eagles Not Done

Surprise trade to the....Panthers? Bewildered giving up the #1 when the Panthers had already selected their #1. Big draft for Carolina to take a RB and a big tackle.

 

But the Eagles getting their 2nd, 4th and next's #1 is a steep price.

 

The Eagles aren't done. My guess is that the Eagles really wanted Branden Albert, tried to trade up to get him and when the Chiefs outbid them, they didn't want to settle for Jeff Otah (predraft predictions to the contrary).

 

Expect a trade packaging some of those 2nd and 3rd rounders to get back into the 1st round - Tennessee? Lito and picks to Tennessee...for what?

 

Or package some picks and stockpile some #2s, move up in that round. Kind of like what the Eagles usually do in the first round only in the second - Kenny Phillips, Limas Sweed?

Pats Screw Picks

It just occurred to me that with the Pats forfeiting their first round pick that some poor college kid is going to get screwed out of some money because Bill Belichick is a cheater. Because there are now only 31 first round picks this year, the first player taken in the second round really should have been a first rounder (the same theory holds for the first player taken in each of the new rounds). But the biggest impact would be in the difference between "first round" money and "second round" money. i'll have to check on what the differences have been in the past but it is gotta be at least tens of thousands of dollars.

 

So thanks, Bill. You're cheating is now negatively impacting innocent bystanding college kids. Maybe the Commissioner should use some of the fine money paid by Bob Kraft and Belicheat to reimburse these picks for their lower salaries due to the Pats' forfeited pick. Or maybe Bill could be a big enough man to contribute it out of his own $5 million annual salary.

DL In the Draft Now

First the Eagles missed out on Jared Allen, now it looks like the Broncos had more interest in DeWayne Roberston than them too.

Best Draft?

Funny about draft analysis. How often has the meter swung back and forth on whether the Texans were boneheads for picking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush? Could swing the other way three times during the course of this season.

 

Hard to evaluate any draft till probably 4-5 years afterwards. Here’s looking forward to Mel Kiper’s instant analysis on Saturday.

 

Lito and #19 for Roy Williams?

 

Lito for Anquan Boldin straight up or with some exchange of picks?

 

Could happen.

 

Saturday?

Lots and lots of interest and theories on the Eagles.

 

Basically it all comes down to whether (if?) they trade Lito on Saturday and what they get for him, i.e, player and/or picks (move up in 1^st).

 

Many think offensive line for the first pick, others are pushing WR. But it seems first round is deepest at defensive back which is also big Eagles need (especially if they trade Lito) so people think that will be first choice.

 

Personally, I would not be surprised if Lito is or isn’t traded. And I would not be surprised if the Eagles traded up in the first round and made another trade to get another 1^st round pick or packaged some picks to move up into the early second round..

 

See earlier post about trading players for draft picks and a theory about trading holdouts (which is almost what happened twice with the eagles so far this year – Lito for larry fitzgerald and Lito for Jared Allen).

 

Bottomline, the Eagles are expected to be very active on Saturday in moving around the board so it should be interesting.

 

Didinger

Ray Didinger makes a compelling (pleading?) case for the Eagles NOT to pick an offensive lineman with their first round pick and instead grab somebody who can contribute this year...right away. Besides, as Didinger notes, the Eagles have lots of quality offensive line reserves that could still develop (Max Jean-Gilles, Winston Justice).

 

Didinger's take: cornerback in the first round (perhaps moving up by dealing Lito), d-tackle in the second, WR in the 3rd. www.comcast.net/sports/articles/nfl/2008/04/23/Didinger.Eagles/

Wide OUT

It's not just Andy Reid that can't pick wide receivers. "In fact, a quick study of the past 10 years of the draft suggests more first-round gaffes are made at wide receiver than any other position," reports the Washington Post.

Why? Extra variables and - if you read between the lines of former Titans GM Floyd Reese comments - prima donna issues.

"'The wide receiver position, in spite of what people think, is a hard position to evaluate and draft,' Reese said. 'There are so many variables: Does he fit our scheme? Are the coaches going to like him? Are there talent or character issues? If you find a big tackle who's strong and willing to work and has good feet, the chances are that he's going to be able to come in and play for just about any team in the league. But receiver is different. Everyone just says 'receiver,' but in reality a West Coast receiver is different from a deep threat is different from a spread receiver is different from a slot receiver.'"

Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome concurs, "They're asked to do so many things before the snap and then when they start running. And that's before they catch it. I think it's a tough position for guys to come in right away and play, especially with what they have to go through in college."

So it's not all Andy's fault.

Still want to take Delvin Thomas in the first round?

Trading Up, Trading Down

The rising concern about exploding rookie contracts only makes me more bewildered about the apparent discount NFL teams typically pay for acquiring proven talent for draft picks.

 

With talent evaluation such a crap shoot (i.e., Freddie Mitchell, Jerome McDougle, Tim Couch, Akili Smith), why wouldn't more NFL teams be interested in trading relatively high draft picks for solid veterans? Especially when these rookies are costing so much more relative to what veterans make - even assuming renegotiated contracts for the veteran.

 

I get a kick out of everyone (Peter King in particular) decrying the Brinks job the Patriots pulled over the Dolphins in getting Wes Welker for a 2nd rounder. That kind of value for the Dolphins #2 receiver is typical in today's NFL. What was the outlier was Welker's performance for the Patriots this past season nd the attention his trade value received. Seriously, before this year everyone would have been killing the Patriots for giving up anything more than a second rounder for Welker.

 

There is a general mindset in the NFL about "signing your own players," which is code for drafting well and extending your promising youngsters. The second part of that equation is that these newbies learned the team's "system" and are proving themselves in it. The flip side belief is that it is harder to break in or re-train players brought in from other teams. I think there is too much of a premium placed on this "growing your own" idea. If you can trade for relatively young players, all it costs you is a draft pick or two, that seems like a good deal.

 

All of which brings us to Lito Sheppard, a 27 year old Pro Bowl cornerback.The Eagles so far have failed to get a first round pick for Sheppard. My question is why more (any) teams aren't eager to give up a possibility for a sure thing?

 

Take for instance the Patriots. Had they had their #31 pick they would have been an ideal candidate to trade it for Sheppard. The Eagles get a first rounder, the Pats get a starting corner (to replace the one they lost to the Eagles in free agency). Even if the Pats renegotiate Sheppard's contract, they'll still come out ahead than what they would pay for a first rounder. They also get a player that can start, and excel, immediately.

 

Much has been made of Sheppard's injuries and how he's missed 14 games in 3 years. How many games would a rookie cornerback drafted in the first round expect to start? Probably none. So even if Sheppard gets hurt and misses four games, the Patriots would still be 12 games ahead compared to what they would have gotten out of a rookie in their first year.

 

heck, even if the rookie starts all 16 games in their second year and Sheppard again got hurt enough to only play in 12 the Patriots would still be 8 games ahead in playing time for the veteran compared to the draft pick.

 

After that, Sheppard's expendability increases given his age and presuming a four year contract. Really, after that second year and particularly after the third year the Patriots could cut bait with Sheppard and move on with little future salary cap ramifications. Not so with your rookie, now in his third year. If he gets hurt, you almost have to keep him (and continue to pay) to preserve your ability to see how he bounces back in year four if for no other reason than he's young, you picked him, and you still have the opportunity to extend him if he pans out.

 

The Patriots were just one example. Measuring the gold standard to a gold standard. But the same logic applies to any other team. This year, anyone interested in taking a "shutdown" corner in the draft should think long and hard about trading that pick for Lito Sheppard. They get a proven player and transfer the risk of the pick not panning out to the Eagles.

 

As rookie salaries explode and the risk of damaging a team's future salary cap increase if they pick wrong, more teams are interested in trading down in the first round of the draft. The wonder is why more teams trade not down in the first round, but out of the first round, by acquiring proven, cheaper veterans for a roll of the draft dice.

EnBoldined?

Another disgruntled player seeking an extension in the wake of his teammate's new deal is Cards' WR Anquan Boldin. After the Cards re-signed Fitzgerald there was some talk about about the Eagles and Boldin. Where there's smoke, there's fire. Keep an eye on this on Saturday.

The Switcheroo

So here's where we are in 2008 with teams like the Eagles exercising "cap discipline" by not re-negotiating contracts, i.e., Lito Sheppard. Pro Football Talk and the Delco Times report that the Eagles offered Lito and picks to the Chiefs for disgruntled D-end Jared Allen

 

Allen's unhappy with his current contract which is why the Chiefs want to move him. Trading for him would mean the Eagles would likely have to renegotiate the contract. Of course, the Eagle are getting rid of Lito cause he wants a new contract, and presumably the Chiefs would have to renegotiate with him.

 

So if you are keeping score at home, the Eagles and Chiefs won't renegotiate with their own players but are willing to swap them and enter into new contracts with the "new" players.

 

Makes sense, right?

Out of Position

What position is the Eagles’ greatest need in the draft? Inqy’s Bob Brookover says WR/KR which is why he thinks they’ll take Devin Thomas.

 

I’m thinking offensive lineman. The Eagles bookend tackles are both entering the final year of their contracts. And based on that, Brookover suggests that the position isn’t a pressing need.

 

Howver, if we’ve learned anything from the Reid era is that 1) he loves drafting linemen 2) avoids skill players in the first round and 3) drafts on need for the following year.

 

Thus, we got Lito Sheppard, Sheldon Brown, and Michael Lewis all taken in a draft while we still had pro bowl corners Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor under contract.

 

My best guess is that the Eagles either move up in the first round to grab the O-lineman they really want (Ryan Clady?), or take whoever’s left at 19 (Jeff Otah?) and perhaps package some picks to move up in the second round or into the late first round to grab Kenny Phillips, the “U’s” stellar safety and BDawk heir apparent.

 

I write that with the disclaimer that I think it ridiculous to speculate on who exactly the Eagles will draft given the vagaries of the other teams picking ahead of the Eagles. Certainly some draft predictions last year would have been much more accurate if the Patriots hadn’t snagged Brandon Merriweather ahead of the Eagles. And let’s not forget that NO ONE saw the John Welbourn trade and Shawn Andrews pick coming. That was a total shock on draft day. Or, for that matter, trading down for Kevin Freakin’ Kolb after Merriweather became unavailable.

 

Should be interesting.

 

Tomorrow: Why don’t more teams trade picks for players?

Ocho Cinco

It’s going to take more than two potential first round picks for the Eagles to land Chad Johnson. That’s what the Redskins offered the Bengals yesterday, the “first-round pick, No. 21 overall, and a conditional third-rounder in 2009 that could escalate to a first rounder if Johnson and the Redskins hit certain performance levels,” according to ESPN which Marvin Lewis since confirmed.