Trading Up, Trading Down

The rising concern about exploding rookie contracts only makes me more bewildered about the apparent discount NFL teams typically pay for acquiring proven talent for draft picks.

 

With talent evaluation such a crap shoot (i.e., Freddie Mitchell, Jerome McDougle, Tim Couch, Akili Smith), why wouldn't more NFL teams be interested in trading relatively high draft picks for solid veterans? Especially when these rookies are costing so much more relative to what veterans make - even assuming renegotiated contracts for the veteran.

 

I get a kick out of everyone (Peter King in particular) decrying the Brinks job the Patriots pulled over the Dolphins in getting Wes Welker for a 2nd rounder. That kind of value for the Dolphins #2 receiver is typical in today's NFL. What was the outlier was Welker's performance for the Patriots this past season nd the attention his trade value received. Seriously, before this year everyone would have been killing the Patriots for giving up anything more than a second rounder for Welker.

 

There is a general mindset in the NFL about "signing your own players," which is code for drafting well and extending your promising youngsters. The second part of that equation is that these newbies learned the team's "system" and are proving themselves in it. The flip side belief is that it is harder to break in or re-train players brought in from other teams. I think there is too much of a premium placed on this "growing your own" idea. If you can trade for relatively young players, all it costs you is a draft pick or two, that seems like a good deal.

 

All of which brings us to Lito Sheppard, a 27 year old Pro Bowl cornerback.The Eagles so far have failed to get a first round pick for Sheppard. My question is why more (any) teams aren't eager to give up a possibility for a sure thing?

 

Take for instance the Patriots. Had they had their #31 pick they would have been an ideal candidate to trade it for Sheppard. The Eagles get a first rounder, the Pats get a starting corner (to replace the one they lost to the Eagles in free agency). Even if the Pats renegotiate Sheppard's contract, they'll still come out ahead than what they would pay for a first rounder. They also get a player that can start, and excel, immediately.

 

Much has been made of Sheppard's injuries and how he's missed 14 games in 3 years. How many games would a rookie cornerback drafted in the first round expect to start? Probably none. So even if Sheppard gets hurt and misses four games, the Patriots would still be 12 games ahead compared to what they would have gotten out of a rookie in their first year.

 

heck, even if the rookie starts all 16 games in their second year and Sheppard again got hurt enough to only play in 12 the Patriots would still be 8 games ahead in playing time for the veteran compared to the draft pick.

 

After that, Sheppard's expendability increases given his age and presuming a four year contract. Really, after that second year and particularly after the third year the Patriots could cut bait with Sheppard and move on with little future salary cap ramifications. Not so with your rookie, now in his third year. If he gets hurt, you almost have to keep him (and continue to pay) to preserve your ability to see how he bounces back in year four if for no other reason than he's young, you picked him, and you still have the opportunity to extend him if he pans out.

 

The Patriots were just one example. Measuring the gold standard to a gold standard. But the same logic applies to any other team. This year, anyone interested in taking a "shutdown" corner in the draft should think long and hard about trading that pick for Lito Sheppard. They get a proven player and transfer the risk of the pick not panning out to the Eagles.

 

As rookie salaries explode and the risk of damaging a team's future salary cap increase if they pick wrong, more teams are interested in trading down in the first round of the draft. The wonder is why more teams trade not down in the first round, but out of the first round, by acquiring proven, cheaper veterans for a roll of the draft dice.