2004 - Here We Come!

After three straight appearances in the conference championship and the acquisitions of Terrell Owens and Jevon Kearse in the offseason, Eagles fans can’t be faulted for believing that a fourth championship game appearance and, hopefully, a Super Bowl victory are within the team’s grasp this year. Unfortunately, preseason expectations of most teams too often don’t hold through the actual season. Just ask the Buccaneers, who looked like world beaters vs. the Eagles in the season opener last year but failed to even make the playoffs. That oblong ball has a funny way of taking unusual, game changing, season shifting bounces. There is simply no guarantee that the Eagles will make the NFC championship and even earn a playoff berth.

The return of Joe Gibbs is just another reminder that one of the keys of the Eagles success over the past three years is that they basically have had their way with their division rivals. The Redskins have been in disarray ever since Dan Snyder bought the team. Cowboys coach Dave Campo was incompetent,(in addition to having a roster with little talent.) And the Jints, while always tough, were perennially dealing with the fate of Jim Fassel.

All that has now changed. The Eagles will be lucky to split with the Skins. And the two games vs. Parcells should be tough (but winnable). Ironically, the toughest division foe of recent years, the Giants, should now be the easiest.

Moreover, the pressure is really on Andy Reid now. Not only does he have to get over the hump of the conference championship game, but for a team whose best player is on offense and whose head coach calls the offensive plays it has been the defense that has carried this team for his entire tenure. It’s time for the offense to carry the burden. One need only look at the final scores of the three championship games to discern the trend. The high powered Rams offense scored 29 points. The Buccaneers scored 20 offensive points (discounting Barber’s INT TD). And the Panthers scored 14 points. The Eagles defense has allowed less points in each of the three games.

Unfortunately, the vaunted Eagles offense has also scored less points in those three games. 25 vs. the Rams. Only 10 against the Bucs. And a measly FG put up against the Panthers. With the emergence of Westbrook as a triple threat out of the backfield and the trade for premier WR TO, Reid will not be able to avoid the blame if the offense fails to live up to expectations this year. This is particularly true since this is probably the weakest Eagles defense of the past three years.

Of course, we got a flashes of the offense’s potential potency last year, most notably in the high scoring game at Miami. Here’s hoping that it wasn’t a tease but finally comes to fruition in 2004.

NFC East predictions:
Eagles 12-4
Redskins 10-6
Cowboys 9-7
Giants 5-11


Game by game breakdown

Giants – If Eli Manning were starting this game, this game would be a blowout. Jim Johnson’s defenses eat young QB’s for lunch. Even still, this should be a win. Heck, the Eagles are 8 point favorites. It will be interesting to see how shell shocked Kurt Warner is. My own theory is that he took too many shots, especially blows to the head, while standing tall in the pocket and delivering pinpoint passes to fleet Rams receivers during the “Greatest Show on Turf’s” glory years. Those blows have caught up with him. Hard to believe the Giants were considered a playoff contender last season but begin this year in full rebuilding mode.

Vikings – I would have likely listed this game as a loss were it being played in Minnesota. It’s not, so it’s an Eagles’ win. C’mon, I mean, Mike Tice? This could be the game where Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown earn their stripes covering Randy Moss, or it could be the game that prompts a flood of calls to WIP Tuesday morning demanding the return of Bobby Taylor.

@ Lions and Bears, oh my! - These two North division teams get lumped together. Thankfully, the Eagles don’t have to play these teams in a year or two when they should be very tough. The Lions are still young and the Bears are rebuilding. These are wins. Even with a loss to the Vikings, worst case scenario is the Eagles enter the bye week at 3-1.

BYE

Carolina – Rematch of the NFC Championship game. The Eagles are a better, healthier team than they were then. Somehow, Jake Delhomme throws a twenty yard out that turns into an 80 yard TD in the Super Bowl and he’s the second coming of Archie Manning. We’ll see. Eagles win.

@ Cleveland – Tough game against an improving team. Should be a win, but is trap game coming on the road a week after the revenge game vs. Carolina.

Baltimore – Jamal Lewis may have broken Dickerson’s season rush record had he played against the Eagles last year. Alas, this is not last year. And did you see Kyle Boller in the preseason? He’s shakier than a Polaroid picture. The Ravens defense is still ferocious, so let’s hope there aren’t any serious injuries coming out of this game

@ Pittsburgh – See Cleveland above. Duce will have a good game. Win.

@ Dallas (Monday night) – If Vinny Testaverde is still upright when the Eagles come to Big D, he won’t be for long. If he’s not and Tony Romo’s the starter, this is definitely a win. On the other hand, Parcells inexplicably got 10 wins out of Quincy Carter.

Washington – The Eagles will split with Joe Gibbs’ team, so this home game is a win and their away game is a loss.

@ NYG – Eli Manning will likely be playing at this point. It’s a win.

Green Bay – Rematch of the divisional playoff. I think the Eagles will win this game, but for the sake of margin of error I’ll put it down as a loss.

@ Washington – See Washington above. If the Eagles can steal a win vs. the Redskins and sweep them, they’re probably on pace for homefield advantage in the playoffs. That’s a good thing, right?

Dallas – If the Eagles are going to lose a second game within the division, it will be against this team. This game in particular? Probably not.

@ St. Louis (Monday night football) – Although St. Louis might be a contender for the team with the highest expectations that falls flat on their faces, until the games get played and we see if it’s true, put this one down as a loss at the RCA Dome.

Cincinnati – Cincy will be much improved, but Carson Palmer doesn’t scare me and this is probably a meaningless game for the Bengals while the Eagles may be playing for playoff seedings, including a bye. Win.

For argument’s sake, you can assign another loss among one of the following games: Minnesota, Carolina, Baltimore, Dallas --- and the Eagles should still go 11-5 (10-6 at absolute worst). Good enough for the playoffs, maybe even a bye, but probably not homefield advantage. That’s ok, the most important thing is to get the bye. The rest will care of itself.