A Pessimistic Preview

Here's SI's Peter King's negative thoughts about what happens if things go bad with TO in Philly appearing in this regular MMQB column.

Now, about Philly. I have the same questions all of you do. I just think many of you are thinking all the questions will be answered positively. I don't. There's too much risk in this team for me. Does Jevon Kearse make all the difference to the defense?

"He tilts the field when he's in there,'' his former defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz, told me. When he's in there. Those are the key words. This is the ultimate speed rusher, and in the last two years he's missed 16 games with a broken foot, a sprained foot and sprains of both ankles.

I love Brian Westbrook, and my gut tells me he'll be more Tiki Barber than Amos Zereoue, a little back who can touch it 320 times and stay healthy. If he can't, Philadelphia's in big trouble, because I don't think Donovan McNabb's the kind of keep-the-chains-moving, eat-the-clock quarterback you need in a runner-weak offense. I've heard him counter my claim about him not being accurate enough at 57 percent in a passer-friendly offense (not that it's just me who's saying it) three or four times this summer. And McNabb's such a good guy I hope he proves me wrong. Maybe a very good receiver takes you from 57 to 63 percent. Think of it. If you throw 450 passes in a season, the difference between 57 percent and 63 percent is 27 completions.
The addition of Owens could do that, right? Well, the addition of Owens also means McNabb will likely be throwing downfield more than he has in the past. No matter how good, and how open, Owens is, I'm dubious McNabb can jack up the completions that much.

Now about Owens. I spent some time with him a month ago at camp, and I give him credit for doing so, because he knows what I've said about him. (Last year, in the midst of his Tour de Destruction of San Francisco, I said, "Terrell Owens is everything that is wrong with pro football.'') He and McNabb said all the right things about how Owens wouldn't be a distraction if he wasn't getting the ball, as long as the Eagles were winning. I guess I'm going to view that skeptically. Let me show you a little chart here (left).

So this is what was so hard to live with. This was what Owens just couldn't stomach anymore. When I sat with Jeff Garcia in Cleveland a month ago to ask him about it, I was surprised to find him so, so ... sad.

All he'd ever done is show up to work every day and worked his rear end off to be the best player he could be, yet his co-star kept dissing him in the press for his lousy arm. How lousy could it be? I mean, look at those numbers. For a four-year period, 2000-2003, Garcia-Owens was more productive than Daunte Culpepper to The Great Randy Moss, by 15 catches and seven touchdowns. Culpepper has the huge arm and Garcia the piddling one, right? Maybe not. The average Culpepper completion to Moss went for exactly 12 inches longer than the average Garcia hookup to Owens.

You're asking why I bring this up. Simple. If Owens found so much to bitch about in San Francisco catching 87 passes and 12 touchdowns a year, how's he going to feel in the Philly, where there's a chance he could have lower numbers in both categories? How's he going to feel going from a 63-percent career thrower (Garcia) to a 57-percent career passer (McNabb)? Will he grow alligator arms reaching for McNabb's errant throws?
I''m not predicting doom. I'm really not. I am raising the point that it's easy to be on an NFL honeymoon on Labor Day. Everything's beautiful today. I just don't know if everything will be beautiful two months from today.

I think there's a good chance Owens will be on much better behavior with a quarterback he respects and considers a good friend in McNabb. And McNabb is the king of his locker room, the way Derek Jeter lords over the Yankees' clubhouse. McNabb will be able to keep Owens in line if he strays. Probably. I emphasize "probably.'' There is much at stake for Owens, because he begged to come to Philadelphia. That's the biggest reason I think this has a good chance of working.

As that noted football philosopher Bill Parcells once said: "That's why they play the games.''