Friday, November 16, 2007

Double Reverse

Peter King looks at the top 5 rushers in week 10 -- 4 of whom were undrafted free agents - and boldly declares that "the moral of the story is that running back is the last position I'd ever spend big free-agent money on if I ran an NFL franchise...You can find guys on the NFL street to gain 1,200 yards for you. Happens every year. The lesson should ring out in every front office in the league over the next few years: Don't pay big money for a back who's been a star in the league. Instead, develop your own later-round finds. They come in all shapes and sizes."

It's an odd declaration. First, for such a sweeping generalization on the results of one week's rushing stats. Two, it is strange for a football beat writer to so be such an advocate for paying big money for a particular football position. Third, it is even more bizarre that in the middle of King's thesis he appears to contradict himself without a hint of irony. While singing the praises of Parker, Chatman, Grant and Young he suggest that the quartet "are hungry. Downright starving, probably, after being stuck behind good backs like Jerome Bettis, Ronnie Brown and Tiki Barber. With the injuries that ravage teams every year, it's smart to have a good second and third back, but it's just as smart not to pay a first-teamer the big dough."

King I suppose can split hairs by noting his distinction between free agent signings and drafting your own running backs, but the whole thing is a mish mash. King says teams should not pay big money for backs like Bettis and Bareber. He says Willie Parker is just as good, and more cost-effective. But then he says Parker couldn't get on the field because he was "stuck behind good backs" like Jerome Bettis. So which is it?

More broadly, a quick look at the season long rushing leaders shows that the top RBs were nearly all first round draft picks, and that they are not named Chatman, Grant or Young notwithstanding week 10 stats. In fact, of the current top 9 only two were not very high draft picks - Willie Parker was undrafted and Brian Westbrook was a 3rd rounder. The rest aside from Portis in the 2nd round, were high end #1 picks: Peterson, Addai, Lynch, McGahee, James, etc.

And we'll see how many guys at the end of the year, off the street or taken in the first round, gain 1,200 yards.

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