It is what it is - A Conversation

Bill Parcells became known for saying – among other things – that “your record is what it is.” The idea being that there are some games you win that you should have lost, and some you lost that you should have won and that it all balances out over the course of the season so your record really is an accurate reflection of the team’s standing and quality.

 

It’s a counterargument to those who are about to do what I am in revisiting game outcomes this season and wonder “what if.” Obviously, the two games that every Eagles fan cringes over are the opening day loss to the Packers and the late collapse versus the Bears. Andy Reid flat out blew the Packers game by not having a tested NFL punt returner on the roster to start the season. The result was a muffed punt TD and a fumbled punt for the game winning FG. If Jeremy Bloom fields those punts cleanly, the Eagles likely win that game. The Bears loss in which they drove 97 yards after the two minute warning for the game winning TD is also one that gnaws at Eagles fans.

 

Were those two losses wins then the Eagles entire season, McNabb’s image and indeed the 2008 outlook look dramatically different at 7-3 rather than 5-5. On the other hand, to be fair and look at wins that could have been losses there is last week’s Eagles-Redskins game which stands out as one that the Eagles stole. And just for good measure, the Jets had a chance late to score a game tying TD. So perhaps the Eagles would be 6-4 right now (take back the Pack and Bears and give up the Skins). Or maybe 5-5 “is what it is.”

 

The skins have their own regrets. They squeaked by the Dolphins and Cardinals and have tough late losses to the Packers, Eagles, and Cowboys. Is 5-5 a fair measure of this team?

 

The Giants results are a little more clear cut with only the Redskins game that could have truly gone against them and made them 6-4, which sounds about right since they appear to have really benefitted from easy wins (relative to their division rivals schedules) against San Fran and Atlanta.

 

In fact, maybe someone can explain to me the cratering of the Niners. They appeared poised for a breakout year with Alex Smith and Frank Gore. Smith in particular seems to have regressed this year. What the heck happened there.

 

The big problem with early losses or those that should have been wins is the narrowing margin of error for later in the season. The Eagles are now facing that. With a loss to the Patriots looming on Sunday, that puts them at 6 losses. A Cowboys loss in Dallas on December 23 makes them at best 9-7. And that presumes winning out against Seattle and the Giants at home, and the Saints on the road. A loss to any or all of those teams would not be shocking.

 

The Giants as the Post notes today are 7-3 and “78.4 percent of teams that won seven of their first ten games ended up in the post-season.”  Still, they’ve got some tough upcoming opponents including the very up and down Vikings, at Chicago, the Eagles, Redskins and Patriots. They’ve also got last year’s late season collapse still in their minds. They probably beat both North teams, split with the remaining NFC East and lose to the Patriots (if the Patriots are going for an undefeated season. But the entire country will be rooting for the Giants). They also have Buffalo, who I think stinks even before watching last night’s drubbing but is 5-5 which puts them a game better than Minn and Chicago. In any case, a worst case 3-3 gets them to 10-6 and that will safely get them into the playoffs this year in a very down NFC.

 

The skins have almost the same remaining schedule as the Giants, swapping out the Cowboys for the Eagles and also playing Buffalo, Chicago, and Minnesota. The key for their strong finish will be this week’s game at Tampa. Win it and they should go at least 9-7. Will that be enough? Unclear. Then again this team has been so inconsistent all year 6-10 or 10-6 are entirely possible.

 

Can the Giants catch the Cowboys? As of right now, the Packers and Lions are the only teams left on the Cowboys schedule with winning records. They do have two division games left against the currently 5-5 Eagles and Skins. The Cowboys should beat the Jets for their 10^th win. Carolina is tough but that should be a win and even splitting with the Eagles/Skins gets them to 12 wins right there.

 

By the way, how weird is it that in their last 6 games, the Bills will play 3 of those games vs. the NFC East, which is one game than the NFC East teams will play each other in that same span.